The Yankees return to Yankee Stadium, bringing their home dominance and red-hot offense against the Cleveland Guardians, who are struggling to capitalize on opportunities. With the Yankees currently sitting atop the AL East, they’ve been proving they’re among baseball’s elite teams, winning seven of their last eight at home. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Yankees and the Guardians.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Clarke Schmidt, a steady presence in the Yanks’ rotation with a 3.95 ERA, will take the mound for New York. Schmidt has been effective recently, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Schmidt’s K/BB ratio sits at an impressive 2.1, and his .195 BAA at home further demonstrates his ability to neutralize hitters in Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz (2-6, 4.40 ERA) is tasked with slowing down New York’s high-powered offense, but his struggles on the road (6.39 ERA) raise serious concerns.
The Guardians’ offense is light years behind the Yankees. Even with Jose Ramirez’s .330 average and 11 home runs, Cleveland’s offense ranks just 22nd in MLB in wRC+ and has shown inconsistency, particularly against right-handed pitchers. Ramirez has a 34.3% barrel rate against right-handers, which is solid, but Ortiz’s 1.43 WHIP and his struggles with the long ball make him vulnerable against a power-laden lineup like New York’s. Their batting woes are compounded by a pitching staff that’s given up 231 earned runs, with Ortiz allowing a 5.79 ERA against New York in his career.
Cleveland’s bullpen has been steady, but the Yankees’ offense is firing on all cylinders. Aaron Judge continues his MVP-caliber season, leading the team with a .391 average, 21 home runs, and 50 RBIs. Judge’s .413 wOBA against right-handed pitching, paired with his 20% barrel rate, makes him an impossible matchup for Ortiz. With consistent power from Judge and support from players like Giancarlo Stanton and Ben Rice, the Yankees can put runs on the board quickly. Ortiz has been prone to walking batters (30 this season) and allowing the long ball, which does not bode well against a Yankees lineup that’s fourth in the league in home runs.
Schmidt, though not overpowering, has limited damage this season, and his strikeout rate against lefties (32%) will serve him well against Cleveland’s sluggers like Ramirez. Schmidt’s ability to limit hard contact, with a 24.3% hard-hit rate against lefties this season, gives him the upper hand against Cleveland’s top hitters. Schmidt’s success at home (3.18 ERA) versus his road struggles (5.12 ERA) makes him a clear advantage in this matchup, especially with the Yankees’ bullpen depth backing him up.
Guardians vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Cleveland’s recent form hasn’t been great, with the team posting a 3-4 record over their last seven games as underdogs, while the Yankees have been racking up wins in the Bronx, including against elite teams like the Dodgers. Ortiz has yet to prove he can handle a lineup like New York’s, and his lack of control could spell disaster in Yankee Stadium.
As for the total, both teams have trended toward the Under lately, with the Yankees hitting the under in seven of their last eight at home and Cleveland’s recent offensive slump suggesting a low-scoring affair. Given Rodon’s stellar form and Schmidt’s consistency at home, the under 9.0 seems like the sharp play.
The Yankees have too much power, too much pitching, and too much momentum to let this one slip. They’ll cover the run line with ease and secure another win on their home turf.
Best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+105) vs. Guardians
Schmidt’s stats are trending up—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
