According to Basketball Reference, Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam has just a 2.1% chance of eventually being inducted into the Hall of Fame, the 36th-highest among active players and below Domantas Sabonis, Isaiah Thomas, and just ahead of Khris Middleton. But depending on what happens in these NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the prospect of Siakam eventually donning an orange jacket in Springfield isn’t far outside the realm of possibility. The 31-year-old Cameroonian is a one-time Most Improved Player, three-time All-Star, two-time All-NBA honoree, one-time champion, and now, an Eastern Conference Finals MVP.
He’s already one of the greatest African players in league history, as well as among the best G-League alumni, but with a second championship and first Finals MVP, Siakam would earn his place among the pantheon of all-time basketball greats. Although he’s not the most flashy player, he’s above average at every single aspect of basketball, making him a critical asset to two separate Eastern Conference squads. His length, athleticism and basketball IQ make him a threat on the boards, and he’s a capable enough passer to semi-regularly rack up five assists.
Siakam has -110 odds to record at least one NBA Finals double-double at DraftKings Sportsbook after doing so 11 times during the regular season and once during the playoffs.
It’s worth noting that Siakam’s role on the glass has decreased since the start of the playoffs, as he averaged 6.0 boards per game in the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks, 6.4 in the second round against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and only 5.0 in the conference finals against the New York Knicks. That was partially a matter of choice, as he deferred three rebound chances to allow Tyrese Haliburton to grab them instead and initiate a fast break. Siakam still demonstrated his toughness in the conference finals, as 15 of his 30 boards were contested and he still managed to pull down 48.4% of his total rebound chances throughout the series. His average rebound also came just five feet away from the basket, the closest of any of the team’s rotation players, indicating that he was still putting himself in the right spots.
It’s not particularly concerning that Siakam was unable to record any double-doubles in the conference finals, given that the Knicks allowed the league’s second-fewest rebounds during the regular season and the fifth-fewest during the playoffs. He also spent a plurality of his time guarding OG Anunoby, who attempted half of his shots from beyond the arc when guarded by Siakam and amassed just 61 rebound chances throughout the series, limiting Siakam’s opportunity to crash the glass. That was true in the second round too, when he guarded Evan Mobley, whose average shot came 12.5 feet from the basket. In the first round, he guarded mostly Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league’s premier driver, so it’s hardly a surprise that his lone double-double came against the Bucks.
Plus, the Thunder’s lone weakness is that they’re not an elite rebounding team. During the regular season, they allowed the 11th-most rebounds to opposing players, and so far these playoffs, they have conceded the second-most. Indiana, too, is far from an interior force, and its playoff rebounding percentage is actually lower than Oklahoma City’s, but there’s reason to believe that Siakam’s rebounding ceiling will be high. Out of the 16 playoff participants, the Thunder have had the fewest offensive box-outs and seventh-fewest defensive box-outs, so Siakam could get a few uncontested boards. Plus, Oklahoma City’s defense is so suffocating that the Pacers’ field goal percentage is likely to be lower, giving him more offensive rebound opportunities. During the regular season, Siakam had a 5.9% offensive rebounding percentage, the 36th-highest among 179 qualified players.
His regular-season track record is also good. The two times these teams faced off during the regular season, Siakam recorded one double-double and fell a rebound shy in the other one. Plus, the time he fell short, he played just 27 minutes because of the game’s lopsided scoreline. It’s reasonable to expect that, barring foul trouble, he’ll receive 35 minutes in every single game, especially with backup forward Jarace Walker set to miss at least the first two games with an ankle injury. This season, Siakam has played 35 or more minutes 24 times, recording four double-doubles. His matchup should help; during the regular season, he mostly guarded Dort, who, while a perimeter-oriented player, is four inches shorter than Siakam and posted a total rebounding percentage more than four percentage points lower.
Siakam’s likelihood of hitting the prop also depends on how many games the series goes. Right now, under 5.5 games is a -140 favorite, which would render this bet unlikely to hit. Still, given the Thunder’s limitations on the glass and Siakam’s favorable individual matchup, I’ll still back him to get it done.
