After a short bit away, I’m back here manning the DKN MLB Best Bets deck with you this fine Wednesday. Sure smells like summer ball in the air, doesn’t it? I’ll be hitting some more previews and predictions for tonight’s slate of games, but so far I’ve written up the Nationals vs. Cubs, Guardians vs. Yankees, and Blue Jays vs. Phillies games for this evening. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Phillies (-110) at Blue Jays
Mick Abel’s MLB debut was an absolute masterpiece, throwing six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and zero walks against the Pirates. Though his sample size is small, he’s been exceptional at Triple-A with a 2.21 ERA and 10.6 K/9 rate. In a game where the Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios has struggled against the Phillies’ lineup, it’s clear the advantage lies with Philadelphia.
The Blue Jays are a formidable team at home, but their struggles against right-handed pitchers like Abel could expose them here. Berrios’ issues against teams like Philly, combined with his inconsistent command this season, could be their downfall. He’s allowed a troubling 10 home runs in 70 innings and has posted a 7.47 ERA against the Phillies in his career. Toronto’s offensive numbers, while respectable, have been average compared to the Phillies’ high-octane attack, which ranks in the top 10 in several offensive metrics.
Philadelphia’s offense, despite recent hiccups, still holds a higher ceiling. With stars like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper, they can pile up runs quickly. The Blue Jays are capable of answering back, but Berrios’ track record and the offensive edge Philly holds make them a strong pick.
Take the Phillies at -110 on the moneyline. They have the pitching, momentum, and lineup depth to win, even in a tough environment.
Guardians vs. Yankees u9.0 total runs (-120)
New York’s offense has been explosive, but so has their pitching staff. Clarke Schmidt has been excellent at home, posting a 3.18 ERA and limiting damage with a .195 BAA. His K/BB ratio of 2.1 at Yankee Stadium shows his ability to control hitters, and Cleveland’s offense has struggled to generate consistent run support on the road. The Guardians rank 22nd in MLB in wRC+ against right-handers and have shown no sign of reversing their offensive issues in tough ballparks like Yankee Stadium.
Luis Ortiz’s struggles on the road are well-documented, with a 6.39 ERA in 31 innings away from home. He’s prone to allowing hard contact and issuing walks, and New York’s potent lineup—led by Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Ben Rice—will capitalize on any mistake. However, Ortiz’s groundball tendencies (45% GB rate) could help him limit the long ball, especially with the wind blowing in at Yankee Stadium, which favors pitchers more than hitters.
Cleveland’s bullpen has been solid, and with Schmidt and Rodon (who’s been on fire recently) keeping the game under control, it’s tough to see the total hitting nine runs. Both teams have trended toward the Under recently, with the Yankees hitting the under in seven of their last eight at home, and Cleveland’s offense has struggled against top pitching.
Expect a small final score, and a game dominated by strong pitching.
Nationals vs. Cubs o8.0 total runs (-120)
The Cubs’ offense is still absolutely ablaze, ranking second in MLB for runs per game (5.8) and slugging percentage (.447). Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to lead the charge with his 15 home runs and 51 RBIs, and Chicago’s depth, with the likes of Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner, adds considerable firepower relative to the total line. Even with Kyle Tucker nursing a finger injury, the Cubs’ lineup remains potent, capable of producing a significant run total.
On the other side, MacKenzie Gore’s recent form has been good, but his struggles with command (1.2 WHIP) and giving up home runs could spell trouble against this aggressive Cubs lineup. While Gore has been effective at home (2.64 ERA), his career struggles against Chicago—with a 5.24 ERA—concern me. The Nationals’ bullpen also remains a liability, ranking 26th in ERA (5.02) and allowing 5.25 runs per nine innings.
Given these factors, the Cubs should be able to pile on the runs, especially as they exploit Washington’s bullpen vulnerabilities. While Gore can certainly generate strikeouts, his inconsistency and the Cubs’ depth in offense make it likely that runs will come in bunches. The Nationals, led by James Wood and C.J. Abrams, can certainly strike, but their offensive output may not be enough to keep up with Chicago’s firepower, especially with a bullpen that struggles to close games.
The over on 8.0 runs is the smart play. With the Cubs’ potent offense and the Nationals’ pitching issues, expect both teams to contribute equally to hitting the total, unless Boyd stays utterly dominant.
