It’s been a great week of baseball so far, and that continues with 12 more games on tap for Wednesday night. While there are a few top pitchers in play, overall, it looks like a schedule filled with offensive fireworks. If you’re looking to swing for the fences and select some home run props this Wednesday, check out my top three plays of the day. Looking at the options and matchups on the board, my favorite three targets for home run props are Jose Ramirez, Ryan O’Hearn and Juan Soto.
Just a quick reminder before we dive in that all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks even if everything is in their favor. The upside to playing home run props is that they do offer big returns when they hit, and they are also always a fun way to flex your knowledge. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robin formats to boost their upside even higher.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+340)
Ramirez and the Guardians are at Yankee Stadium in a friendly environment for left-handed hitters against Clarke Schmidt, who has given up five home runs this season. Four of those home runs have been to left-handed hitters and one was to Ramirez back on April 21.
Coming into the rematch, Ramirez is on a tear with six home runs in his last 22 games while batting .419 with a .501 wOBA and 46.2% hard-hit rate. Over his last 10 games, his metrics are even stronger with a 54.3% hard-hit rate, 11.4% barrel rate and average exit velocity of 93.7 miles per hour.
Ramirez was one of my top plays for DFS contests this Wednesday, and I also like him as one of my top home run props since he has been hitting the ball so well latley and is in a good spot to go yard on Wednesday.
Ryan O’Hearn to record 1+ home runs (+600)
As you can tell from the odds, I’m taking a bit of a flier on this one, but I think O’Hearn brings great value at this number in a good matchup against Emerson Hancock.
O’Hearn has nine homers this year in 50 games and is hitting an impressive .335 with a .417 wOBA. All nine of his homers have come against right-handed pitching, against whom he has a .428 wOBA, and he also has a .449 wOBA on the road as well. HE has a 52.4% hard-hit rate on the year and a 59.2% hard-hit rate over his last 16 games, even though he only has a pair of home runs during that span.
On Wednesday night, he’ll be in a tough home run environment in Seattle but a great matchup against Hancock, who has a 5.64 ERA and a 5.11 FIP in his nine starts. Opponents have eight home runs against him, including five off the bats of lefties like O’Hearn and five at home, where his ERA is an ugly 9.53 in 17 innings.
Several of the Orioles’ lefties make sense as home run props to consider, but given how strong O’Hearn’s contact metrics are lately, he’s my top pick of the bunch at such a value rate.
Juan Soto to record 1+ home runs (+300)
Soto gets a good matchup against the Dodgers as the Mets take on Tony Gonsolin in the third game of their four-game series in Los Angeles. Gonsolin has the second-highest HR/9 of all the probable pitchers on Wednesday night after giving up eight home runs in just 31 innings so far this year. Seven of those eight home runs have been hit at Dodgers Stadium, where hitters have a .406 wOBA. Lefties like Soto have hit him especially hard, with a .416 wOBA on the season.
Soto was stuck in an awful slump toward the end of May but has snapped out of it with six hits over his last five games, including three homers in his last four. He has four barrels in those five games with an average exit velocity of 95.3 miles per hour.
Soto and Gonsolin have a history against each other, but Soto hasn’t ever hit a home run against Gonsolin. He has gone 6-for-15, though, with two doubles and a triple.
He seems to be back to his usual productive self and this trip to the West Coast seems to have woken up his bat. Getting him at +300 in Los Angeles in this favorable environment is enough to secure him the final slot in my home run props, and he should be a fun way to close out the night in the latest game on the scoreboard.
