It was more of the same for the Astros and Pirates on Tuesday night. Houston rolled to a 3-0 victory thanks in large part to pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. The Pirates went scoreless once again, despite a phenomenal outing from Paul Skenes. Can Houston make it two straight wins, or will Pittsburgh bounce back tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night battle between the Astros and the Pirates.
Houston enters tonight as favorites (-125) over Pittsburgh, with the over/under set at 9 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Wednesday’s contest.
Astros at Pirates prediction, preview
Houston remains a postseason contender, currently first in the AL West with a 33-27 record. Still, that doesn’t mean everything has gone smoothly for the Astros; their offense is currently scoring the league’s eighth-fewest runs per game (4.03). That’s partially due to the absence of All-Star slugger Yordan Alvarez, currently sidelined with a hand injury. On the mound, the ‘Stros have been without starters Spencer Arrighetti (thumb), Ronel Blanco (elbow) and Christian Javier (elbow). That’s opened up a spot in the rotation for Ryan Gusto, set to take the mound tonight. It’s been a difficult first few weeks for the rookie, owner of a 4.62 ERA. However, he’s only allowed four runs over his last nine innings of work.
For the home team, it’ll be Mike Burrows toeing the slab on Wednesday. Much like Gusto, the rookie is a relative unknown, making his fourth career start. The Pirates are hoping the right-hander has a breakthrough tonight. Thus far, he’s accounted for an atrocious 8.64 ERA, albeit over just 8.1 innings. Burrows’ numbers this season at Triple-A Indianapolis are far more respectable: 2.51 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 41 strikeouts.
Somehow, it’s not the pitching that’s the biggest issue for Pittsburgh tonight. The Pirates can’t hit, ranking 29th in the league with 3.18 runs scored per game. Oneil Cruz (124 wRC+), Andrew McCutchen (112 wRC+) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (110 wRC+) are the team’s only above-average hitters thus far. Since May 1st, no team has scored fewer than Pittsburgh’s 88 runs; the next-closest squad is the Rockies (100). During that time, the Astros rank 17th in baseball (125).
Astros at Pirates pick, best bet
This is one of the hardest games to figure out on Wednesday’s MLB slate. The Astros have the more talented roster, but there’s enough uncertainty on the mound to think that this could go either way. With that being said, a constant for both of these teams all season has been a lack of scoring. It helps that neither side over-worked their bullpen on Tuesday, so Gusto and Burrows should have quick hooks. Don’t be shocked if tonight’s inter-league matchup turns into another pitcher’s duel.
Best Bet: Astros Pirates under nine runs (-115)
Gusto and Burrows aren’t household names, but these lineups cannot be trusted. Expect another low-scoring outing on Wednesday night in Pittsburgh.
