This will be the final game of a three-game series in Pittsburgh. The teams split the first two games, with the final score 3-0 in both contests.
Framber Valdez is scheduled to pitch for Houston while Mitch Keller should get the nod for Pittsburgh.
Astros at Pirates prediction, preview
Framber Valdez had serious control issues when he first made it to the majors, but most young pitchers do. It took him two seasons to figure things out, but since then, Valdez has been one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB. The K/9 has been in the 8.5 to 9 range, the walk rate has been in the 2.5 to 3 range, the HR/9 has been sub-1 while the FIP has been in the 3 to 3.5 area. The fastball velocity has increased with age and is now averaging 95.8 mph. Now, not all is sunshine and unicorns, as the average exit velocity is 91 mph while the hard hit rate is 45.9%. That said, Valdez is a groundball pitcher, so many of those balls just kill worms.
There are no discernible splits for Valdez.
There have been three games that Valdez has gotten lit up, giving up four, seven and five earned runs. Outside of those blips, he’s allowed one or fewer earned runs in six starts. Valdez just completed a masterpiece in his most recent outing, striking out nine, walking one and allowing one earned run in nine innings.
Against left-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the fifth-highest rate while having the 25th-best ISO. The wOBA is 24th-best in MLB.
Mitch Keller only has an 18.9% strikeout rate, but he’s only walked 19 and allowed four home runs in 70 innings. The 3.2 FIP is lower than the 3.73 ERA.
Keller has struggled against left-handed batters. All four home runs have come against them while the slash is .294/.349/.451. He’s also been better on the road than at home.
Keller has two blemishes on the season, allowing four earned runs and seven earned runs against the Padres and Yankees at home. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in every other start, with four games of one or fewer earned runs. Keller has been a horse, going at least six innings in all but three starts.
The Astros have struck out at the 18th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 27th in ISO. The wOBA is 22nd-best.
As for bullpens, Houston has the third-lowest FIP while Pittsburgh has the 17th-lowest.
Astros at Pirates pick, best bet
Both teams are offensively challenged while both starting pitchers have pitched well. If the SATs have taught me anything, the Astros should win this one 3-0.
