This week, the PGA TOUR heads to Toronto, Ontario, for the RBC Canadian Open. This is the PGA’s only event played in Canada and will feature a full field of 140+ golfers. The cut will take place after Friday’s round, with the top-65 and ties making the weekend. Rory McIlroy is back in action after taking last week off, as is Ludvig Aberg, who closed with a brilliant 66 last week.
The event has been moved this season to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, a 7,300+-yard par 70 course that should play differently than the shorter country club setups we have seen host this event in recent years.
I wrote a little about the course (see below) in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet for the RBC Canadian Open on DK Network.
“While the course is long, two of the four par 3s measure in at under 160 yards in length, and the two par 5s don’t play overly long either and should be good birdie chances for the entire field. The par 4s are where the bigger hitters will gain an advantage. The setup isn’t overly technical, but much like TPC Scottsdale, the fairways do wind around some natural impediments, water and bunkers, so players can’t get too wild without incurring penalties.
Six of the Par 4s will measure in over 450 yards, so while mid-iron play will be essential, also expect players’ short games to be tested on these holes, as many will have to scramble to save par. Overall, this should be a good all-around test where good off-the-tee play will be of assistance, but good iron and around-the-green play will be heavily relied on. For stats, players who are efficient in the 450-500 yards range on par 4s should have a solid advantage. I’d also look for wedge play to be somewhat important (proximity from 100-125 or 125-150 yards) as we have two short par 3s and a few shorter par 4s mixed in where players will likely be dialing in short irons.”
TPC Toronto is a new course, so there will be a learning curve for the entire field. However, the venue is part of the TPC network of courses, and I expect the setup will mimic some of their other TPC network courses this week. Specifically, TPC Scottsdale and TPC San Antonio came to mind when looking at the setup. This is a longer, winding course, but there is some room off the tee, although the rough has been grown up a bit.
Overall, players will need great ball-striking weeks to dominate, but given the setup, there should also be enough opportunities for putting specialists to make a run if they are locked in.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”).
Taylor Pendrith Better Than 21.5 Finishing Position
I’ve picked on Pendrith a bit in this column when he wasn’t playing well, but with his game looking primed, it’s time to turn in the other direction. The Canadian comes into this week off of two great efforts, including a T-5 at the PGA Championship a few weeks ago, where he gained 8.0 strokes ball-striking.
He followed that up with T-12 at the Memorial, where he gained 9.2 strokes ball-striking and likely would have contended for the win if he had had an average putting week. The good news is that Pendrith is very familiar with this week’s course (TPC Toronto), having grown up in the area, so it’s likely we’ll see a good rebound on the greens from him.
This is a lower total, but with this being his national open and him entering the week playing some of the best golf of his life, it’s OK to be bullish on him in this spot and play for a top-20 finish.
Justin Rose Worse Than 33.5 Finishing Position
Rose had a great run at Augusta in April, but he’s struggled as of late. The veteran has finished outside the top-40 in each of his last three PGA starts and has struggled with different parts of his game at times. Last week, his swing looked completely off kilter as he lost over 3.0 strokes off the tee and over 5.0 strokes on approach.
If this were a shorter setup, I’d fear fading Rose, who can putt and chip his way around a technical setup as well as anyone, but the lengthy course will require some accuracy with mid-to-long irons, which Rose doesn’t have right now. Given that his finishing total is still under 35, he’s a player I’m gung ho on fading in this spot.
Thorbjorn Olesen Better Than 28.5 Finishing Position
Olesen is an aggressive player with a smooth swing that allows him to move the ball well off the tee. While he can be up and down, his consistency this year on the PGA has been solid. He enters this week ranked 13th in SG: Total stats and is top-30 in SG: OTT and Approach. In two of his last four starts, he’s gained over 4.0 strokes on approach and gained 7.9 strokes Tee to Green at the PGA Championship. Olesen is also just three starts removed from a T-7 in Myrtle Beach, where he opened with a 64 and closed with a 67.
The Dane finished T-5 at TPC San Antonio this season, another longer, winding TPC setup that does compare well to this week’s course. With him playing well and coming off a successful US Open qualifier on Monday, I don’t see any reason why he can’t post a big week here and land well inside the top-25 for us.
Thomas Detry Worse Than 34.5 Finishing Position
I’m not sure what is going on with Detry right now, but it’s pretty clear he isn’t past the psychological hangover that comes with landing your first big PGA win. The Belgian has just one top-20 since that win in Phoenix and enters off a poor week at the Memorial, where he lost 5.5 strokes ball-striking.
Detry can putt his way out of trouble, but with the US Open looming and Detry already having a spot locked up, it’s hard to say how motivated he’ll be to play the weekend should things start poorly, or if his swing continues to give him issues. Overall, I don’t mind fading him in these kind of starts until we see more consistent play.
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