This is a battle of two teams currently trending in opposite directions. After getting swept by the Brewers this past weekend, the Phillies have lost four games in a row and will be looking to snap out of their funk by heading north of the border to take on the Blue Jays, winners of five straight.
When it comes specifically to tonight’s contest, Philadelphia’s roster is in some flux. It’s kind of a good news/bad news situation. On the positive end of the spectrum, it seems like Bryce Harper is set to return to the lineup on Tuesday after missing the team’s last five contests due to an elbow injury. However, Zack Wheeler, who was initially slated to start tonight’s tilt, will be skipped in the rotation and go on paternity leave. It’s a give and take.
Can the Phillies get back on track? Let’s break down tonight’s matchup with some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Bowden Francis will take the mound for the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The right-hander is coming off his best outing of 2025, holding the Rangers scoreless across five innings with six strikeouts, yet Francis’ season-long numbers remain quite underwhelming. The 29-year-old enters tonight’s start with a 5.04 ERA and a 6.02 FIP — the highest mark of the 105 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 innings. The reason for Francis’ struggles are simple enough. He just can not stop surrendering home runs. The RHP owns a ninth percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.5%) and an 18th percentile barrel rate (11.1%), so it’s not like this is bad luck. It’s lefties that have done most of the damage, hitting 12 of the 15 long balls that Francis has allowed and combining for a .617 slugging percentage.
Well, with the aforementioned Harper likely to be in the lineup on Tuesday, the Phillies are not short of powerful left-handed bats. Harper, Bryson Stott and Max Kepler could all be dangerous weapons this evening, but it’s Kyle Schwarber that stands out amongst the pack. The hulking slugger sits in the 99th percentile of MLB in expected wOBA (.437), expected slugging percentage (.629) and hard hit rate (59.5%). Schwarber also sports a .534 expected wOBA on batted ball events, which is quite relevant, as Francis has struck out only 18.4% of the LHBs he’s seen in 2025.
Cristopher Sanchez will fill-in for Wheeler at Rogers Centre and toe the rubber against a Toronto team that just scored 39 runs in a four-game series versus the lowly Athletics. In general, the Jays have been good in matchups with southpaws this season, owning the league’s fifth-highest wRC+ within the split (119). However, Sanchez is one of the best. In 59.2 innings of work, Sanchez possesses a 3.32 ERA and a 3.35 FIP. A 54.8% ground ball rate keeps opponent barrels in check and Sanchez is also striking out a career-best 27.6% of opponents. Obviously, you’d always rather have Wheeler pitching, but Sanchez is about as solid a replacement as you’ll see.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-135)
Philly has won an MLB-best 60.7% of its road games in 2025. It should add to that trend with a heavily lopsided pitching advantage on Tuesday.
Strong Lean: Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+235)
Bowden Francis is surrendering 3.45 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs.
