Every team is set to take the field tonight in MLB, which means you’ll have hundreds of options for home run props on the DraftKings Sportsbook. How will you be able to narrow things down? Well, you could do a bunch of analysis yourself. Or you could let me do all that work for you.
Let’s break down my top picks for Tuesday evening.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+275)
Look, there’s never a bad night to take a Kyle Schwarber home run prop, but Tuesday seems like an especially good time, as the Phillies will square-off with Bowden Francis in Toronto. Francis is on the heels of his best start of the season, throwing five shoutout innings against the Rangers last week, yet the 29-year-old has still surrendered the third-most long balls of any pitcher in baseball coming into tonight (15). It’s been left-handed hitters doing most of that damage, too, with 80% of the homers Francis has conceded coming from LHBs. For full context, that translates out to a .617 slugging percentage and a whopping 3.45 home runs per nine. Nothing’s automatic, but again, this appears to be an amazing matchup for Schwarber, who sports a 99th percentile expected wOBA (.437).
Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Home Run (+360)
Like the aforementioned Francis, Trevor Williams is fresh off his best outing of the season. However, the veteran RHP still comes into tonight’s matchup with the Cubs with an ugly 5.69 ERA and allowing opposing lefty hitters to slash .354/.396/.546 with a .405 wOBA. Williams is also surrendering 1.84 opponent home runs per nine within the split. Unfortunately for Williams — and fortunately for us — Chicago’s lineup is stacked with powerful left-handed bats. Kyle Tucker (+300) would probably be my No. 1 option for a long ball prop if he plays, but he’s currently day-to-day with a finger injury. That leaves Crow-Armstrong, who has already set his career-high in homers (15) and possesses a gargantuan .310 ISO against RHPs in 2025.
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Run (+260)
I’m not exactly going out on a limb with this one, as Raleigh enters today’s action tied with Shohei Ohtani for the league lead in home runs with 23. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that this presents as a really good matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano. For one thing, Sugano has conceded 1.87 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs so far in 2025. For another, Sugano possesses just a third percentile strikeout rate (13.7%). The lone flaw in Raleigh’s profile is his tendency to swing and miss. Yet, when he does make contact, the backstop owns a 98th percentile expected wOBA on batted ball events (.528). He’s going to make some contact on Tuesday night. I assure you.
