Last year, the Yankees took down the Guardians during the ALCS, capturing their first pennant since 2009. The series marked the fourth time in eight years that these teams have met in the playoffs. Safe to say, there’s no love lost between either side. Now, the Yankees (36-22) will hope to extend their dominance in this matchup during a three-game set in the Bronx. However, the Guardians (32-26) certainly aren’t pushovers. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Tuesday night battle between the Yankees and Guardians.
New York enters tonight as favorites (-205) over Cleveland, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Tuesday’s contest.
Guardians at Yankees prediction, preview
Cleveland will have its hands full trying to slow down New York’s offense tonight. This season, the Yankees are averaging the third-most runs per game in baseball (5.50). Leading the charge, as always, is Aaron Judge. The outfielder is slashing an absurd .391/.485/.764 at the plate, along with an American League-leading 21 homers. #99 has dominated this matchup, hitting .325 over his last 20 games vs. the Guardians. He’s joined by several quality hitters, including Paul Goldschmidt (147 wRC+), Ben Rice (146 wRC+) and Cody Bellinger (116 wRC+).
On the mound, the visitors will turn to Tanner Bibee. It’s been a good, albeit not great, season for the right-hander. Over 63.0 innings of work, he’s posted a 3.86 ERA and 50 strikeouts. In his career vs. New York, the 26-year-old owns a respectable 3.93 ERA. However, he’s had difficulty against Judge, giving up three hits in three lifetime at-bats against the slugger. Still, Yankees hitters Bellinger and Anthony Volpe have gone a combined one-for-eight in their career vs. Bibee.
For the Yankees, it’ll be Carlos Rodon getting the nod on Tuesday. It’s been a terrific start for the right-hander, making a strong push for his third career All-Star Game selection. Through 12 starts, Rodon owns a 2.60 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 90 strikeouts. In addition, he leads all of baseball with 5.2 hits allowed per nine innings. The 32-year-old has a 2.64 ERA during his last five outings vs. the Guardians, most recently tossing seven scoreless innings in April.
Cleveland’s offense isn’t the most intimidating, ranking 23rd in baseball with 4.05 runs per game. With that being said, there are still several hitters worth mentioning in this lineup, led by superstar Jose Ramirez. The third baseman has enjoyed another outstanding campaign, leading the team with a .327 batting average, 11 homers and 29 RBIs. Elsewhere, former All-Star Steven Kwan has been terrific (133 wRC+) while 39-year-old Carlos Santana continues to rake (124 wRC+). The latter of the two has a .357 lifetime batting average vs. Rodon.
Guardians at Yankees pick, best bet
The Yankees have had the upper hand in this matchup recently, and I expect that to continue tonight. Other than Santana, no Guardians players with at least five at-bats vs. Rodon have hit above .250. In addition, the fireballer has notched a minuscule 1.47 ERA over his previous five starts. In comparison, Bibee owns a middling 4.00 ERA during his last three appearances. Worth noting: the Yankees have accounted for baseball’s second-highest slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season (.457).
There are two Bibee stats that should cause concern amongst Guardians fans tonight. The first is his 1.71 home runs allowed per nine innings, fifth-worst in baseball. New York has clubbed the second-most home runs in the league this season (95). In addition, the right-hander has notched a subpar 2.38 K/BB ratio. That’s bad news against the Pinstripes, who have recorded the most walks per game in baseball (4.14). Add it all up, and there’s plenty of evidence to support a Yankees victory on Tuesday.
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+105)
Judge and the Bombers hit a few deep flies against Bibee while Rodon cruises to his eighth win of the season.
