We have a David versus Goliath scenario in the NBA Finals, with the heavily favored Thunder living up to expectations and winning the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Pacers, who opened the postseason at 30-1 just to win the Eastern Conference, are one of the more surprising NBA Finals appearances in recent memory.
In fact, Oklahoma City (-700) is priced as the seventh largest NBA Finals betting favorite ever on the series line, with the other six all prior to the launch of DraftKings Sportsbook. The favorite won each of the previous six instances in six games or less. That’s not to say that the Pacers don’t have a chance if we go off of historical context. The 2004 Lakers were also priced at -700, and wound up being upset by the Pistons in five games. And these very Pacers already have a sizable upset under their belts, as the Cavaliers were -500 on the series line in the second round, which Indy won in five games.
Let’s take a look at what these two teams have done this season to preview the 2025 NBA Finals between the Pacers and Thunder.
Thunder Postseason Results
OKC has been beyond dominant at home during this run to the NBA Finals, going 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS at the Paycom Center. The lone loss was in Game 1 to the Nuggets, in a game that the Thunder were in command nearly the entire way, but gave up a lead in the final minute due to some questionable game management. OKC’s eight victories at home have come by an average of 27.9 points, and the seven covers have all been victories by 15 or more points.
Going on the road has been a different story for the Thunder, with a 4-3 record, but 0-7 ATS in those games. OKC’s largest margin of victory on the road this postseason was by six points in Game 4 in Memphis to close out the Grizzlies. The Thunder have showed resolve on the road, though, coming back from down 29 points to win Game 3 of that series. OKC went on to drop a pair of games in Denver (Games 3 and 6) and Game 3 in Minnesota, with all three road losses coming by nine or more points.
Pacers Postseason Results
The Pacers have taken an opposite approach to the Thunder to get here. While Indy has done a decent job of protecting home court, the Pacers have been historic road warriors. This team has been an underdog in all eight road games its played this postseason, not only going 6-2 ATS, but also 6-2 outright. The Pacers are covering the spread by 14.8 points per game in road games during this run to the NBA Finals, including some nearly impossible comebacks. Indy has won three games this postseason when trailing by seven or more points with less than a minute remaining, two of them coming on the road. So while the Thunder may have a big lead built late in the game, we know by now that this Pacers squad can never be counted out.
Indy is a solid 6-2 at home in the postseason, including 5-3 ATS. However, unless something completely unpredictable happens during this series, the Pacers will be a home underdog in every game in Indy. They’ve only been a home dog twice this postseason, in Games 3 and 4 against the Cavs. The Pacers split those games, with a desperate Cleveland team taking Game 3, but bouncing back to win Game 4. In fact, both of the Pacers’ home losses this postseason have been desperation spots for the opposition, with the Knicks taking Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals after being upset in both home games.
Thunder Regular Season Results
The Thunder went 53-26-4 ATS in the regular season, counting the one extra NBA Cup game. That mark was by far the best in the regular season, and makes them a combined 60-35-4 ATS in 99 games this season, which is the best mark by a team entering the NBA Finals in over 30 years (per Action Network). OKC was priced as an underdog just three times this season, and in the 96 games it was priced as a favorite, outscored its opponent by 12.5 points per game.
Including the regular season, the Thunder have gone an absurd 34-14-2 ATS as a home favorite. That’s covering at over a 70% clip, outscoring opponents by just shy of 17 points per game, while covering by 6.2 points per. Playing as a road favorite is what’s brought OKC back down to earth, particularly when you combine the postseason — 23-19-2 ATS while covering by just 0.2 points per game. Still, OKC managed to outscore its opponents by over eight points per game as a road favorite, and will be priced as a much shorter favorite in the games played in Indy.
Pacers Regular Season Results
Indiana’s hot streak as a road underdog hasn’t been the case all season, but it’s still been solid when catching points outside of Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Remove the 6-2 ATS mark as a road dog in these playoffs, and Indy went 12-9 ATS getting points away from home in the regular season. That’s still a better mark than in home games, though, with the Pacers going just 4-5-1 ATS as a home underdog in the regular season.
The Pacers got off to a slow start in the regular season. They lost at home to the Bucks on New Year’s Eve, but once the calendar flipped to 2025, they were practically a new team. Indy ripped off 12 of its next 14 games, including six straight to start the month. If we include the postseason, the Pacers have the second-best record in the NBA since January 1. Indiana is 46-18, which sits behind only the Thunder, who are 53-13 in that span. The Pacers are 19-13 outright in their last 32 games priced as an underdog, going back to December.
Head-to-Head Results
The Thunder won and covered both regular season matchups against the Pacers. The first came on December 26 in Indianapolis, with OKC winning 120-114 as a 5-point road favorite. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 45 points in the game. As has been the case all season, OKC was even more dominant on its home floor, blowing the Pacers out by 21 points as an 8.5-point favorite on March 29. Both games went over the total, and both of these teams have cashed the over at a 54% clip this season, including postseason games.
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