The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted the New York Yankees for a three-game series last week, handily downing the Bronx Bombers in two of those three contests. Now, they host New York’s little brother as the Mets come to town for four matchups beginning tonight. The Dodgers just went 1-2 against them on the road recently, but will they fare better the second time around?
Here’s the top Shohei Ohtani prop bet for Dodgers vs. Mets on Monday night.
Shohei Ohtani 1+ home runs (+150)
On the season, Ohtani slashes .293/.390/.655 with 37 RBIs and 22 home runs across 229 at-bats. The superstar slugger remains th the top of his craft, but he’s been in a cold stretch over the last 15 days while batting just .213 on 47 ABs in that span.
Last time he faced the Mets, Ohtani tallied just two hits, one run, one RBI, and one HR in 13 at-bats. It should be interesting to see if he’s able to bounce back the second time around in this series rematch. If there’s ever a time to find his stride again, tonight’s the night.
Paul Blackburn gets the starting nod for the Mets tonight in what will be his first MLB action of the season. The 31-year-old righty has been in and out of the league since 2017 with a career ERA of 4.85 and a high 1.41 WHIP. Last season, he pitched 75.1 innings to the tune of a 4.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, so the one commonality looks like his tendency to allow plenty of earned runs.
While we could target over 0.5 runs for Ohtani tonight as he continues to bat leadoff, I’m taking a different angle. Blackburn’s career HR/9 is 1.18, but he allowed a much higher 1.43 HR/9 last season. Ohtani is currently posting a 0.1 HR/AB, meaning he hits a homer approximately every 10 at-bats. That mark represents a career-best for the Japanese superstar.
Combine these two factors together, and what do we get? A perfect storm. After hitting two home runs in the his first three at-bats of game one against the Yankees last series, Ohtani didn’t log another dinger over the rest of the series. That means he’s gone 11 at-bats without a home run, and he should see at least three plate appearances tonight against a weak pitcher. The +150 odds of him hitting one over the fence look better than the rest of his prop lines, and really, Ohtani just feels due for another long bomb.
