This will be the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh.
Houston is 32-27 on the season and 10-15 on the road. Pittsburgh is 22-38 and 13-16 at home. Houston is second in the American League West while Pittsburgh occupies the cellar in the National League Central. Pittsburgh is tied for the third-worst record in MLB.
Houston just completed a 10-game homestand, going 7-3. Pittsburgh is coming home after a six-game road trip, going 3-3.
This will be the first meeting between the Astros and Pirates this season.
Lance McCullers Jr. is scheduled to pitch for Houston while Paul Skenes should get the nod for Pittsburgh.
Astros at Pirates prediction, preview
Lance McCullers Jr. gave up seven earned runs with three walks in 0.1 innings during his second start of the season. That start is skewing his numbers big time. In the other four starts, McCullers went 3.2, four, 4.1 and six innings, allowing zero, zero, two and three earned runs. McCullers has always had control issues, and this season is no different, as he’s walked 11 batters in 18.1 innings. The strikeout rate of 28.6% has been chef’s kiss, though. The average fastball velocity is averaging only 91.9 mph, way down from the 95.1 mph during his rookie season. McCullers has experienced some bad luck with a .354 BABIP and 67.1% strand rate. The 5.89 ERA isn’t supported by the 4.66 FIP. Throughout his career, McCullers has had reverse splits, as righties have had more success against him, and that’s how things have played out so far this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the 11th-highest rate while having the lowest ISO. The wOBA is 27th-best.
Paul Skenes has been very good this season. He just hasn’t been great. The ERA is 2.15, but the FIP is a bit higher at 2.52. The control has been good while he’s only allowed four home runs and a 4.6% barrel rate. The strikeout rate is good at 26.3%, but we want more! Last season, the strikeout rate was 33.1% and many utilized high draft capital to roster Skenes this season. There are no discernible splits, as both righties and lefties struggle against him. In 12 starts, Skenes has allowed more than two earned runs twice. In his third start of the season, the Cardinals touched him for five earned runs. In 10 starts, Skenes has allowed two or fewer earned runs.
The Astros have struck out at the 19th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 27th in ISO. The wOBA is 21st-best.
As for bullpens, Houston has the third-lowest FIP while Pittsburgh has the 17th-lowest.
Astros at Pirates pick, best bet
McCullers is so volatile that I’m always frightened that he’s going to give up seven earned runs in a start. He has been pitching well, though, and the Pirates are one of the most inept offenses in MLB, so I’m not expecting many runs from them. Skenes is one of the best pitchers in MLB and he should be able to neutralize the Astros offense.
