The Dodgers have dominated the first two games of this World Series rematch in Los Angeles. On Friday, Aaron Judge started the series with a home run, but the Dodgers stormed back to win 8-5 behind a pair of home runs by Shohei Ohtani. On Saturday, the Dodgers took over from the start and cruised to an 18-2 victory. The Dodgers will go for the impressive sweep on Sunday Night Baseball, with first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET at Chavez Ravine.
The two wins to start the series moved the Dodgers to 36-22 on the season, 3.0 games ahead of the Padres in the NL West. The Yankees are still 5.5 games ahead of the Rays and Blue Jays in the AL East, even though they have slid to 35-22 with the two losses.
The home-team Dodgers are the slight favorites at -120 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 9.0.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Yankees vs. Dodgers ahead of the final contest of the regular season.
Yankees vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
The stars have shone brightly in the first two games of the series with Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge both putting on a show. Max Muncy came up huge in Saturday’s game as well, while the Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren struggled and lasted only 1 1/3 inning.
The taxed Yankees bullpen will hope to get plenty of innings from Ryan Yarbrough, who has a tall task trying to shut down the Dodgers. Yarbrough has made four starts and pitched in 12 games, compiling a 3.06 ERA, 4.33 FIP, and just a 24.5% hard-hit rate against.
He has 35 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings on the year and has been very sharp over his last five games while building to a regular starter’s workload. In his last five games, he has allowed only five runs in 23 2/3 innings for a 1.90 ERA. His FIP is higher at 3.63 since he has an extremely high 87.8% strand rate. He has worked up to six innings and threw 88 pitches in his last outing, so he should be stretched out enough to give them solid length Sunday night.
The Dodgers will counter Yarbrough with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been very impressive in his second season in the majors. In his 11 starts, he is 6-3 with a stellar 1.97 ERA, 2.74 FIP and a 0.91 WHIP.
Yamamoto has 75 strikeouts in his 64 innings this season and has at least six strikeouts in four of his last five games. He is coming off a sharp, seven-strikeout outing in Cleveland in his most recent start. He gave up just two earned runs in that outing and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 11 outings this season.
Yamamoto will have to deal with Aaron Judge, who is scalding hot. He’s 12-for-29 (.414) over his last eight games with five home runs, two doubles and a 56.5% hard-hit rate and a 21.7% hard-hit rate. Judge vs. Yamamoto will be one of the most exciting showdown matchups of the night.
Yankees vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The Dodgers’ offense leads the majors this season in runs scored, batting average, and wOBA. They have the second-highest wOBA in the majors against lefties and the eighth-highest wOBA over the last two weeks. Yarbrough has been good, but shutting down the Dodgers right now seems impossible.
Yamamoto has been excellent, and since he should be able to lock down the Yankees, I’m taking the Dodgers on the run line.
Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-+120)
The Dodgers have won by multiple runs in five of Yamamoto’s 11 starts and four of their last five overall. The Dodgers are 30-28 against the run line this season and are an impressive 21-8 at home straight-up.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge 6+ Total Bases (+135)
If you go with this prop, you don’t have to choose between the two star sluggers–you get to cheer for both. In his last 15 games, Ohtani is averaging 3.0 total bases per game, while Judge has averaged 2.9 total bases per game over that same stretch. In the first two games of the series the two superstars combined for 10 and 11 total bases.
