The trek up the NBA Playoff Pagoda isn’t quite as dramatic as a true Game of Death, but it does extinguish the flame for all but one team each and every season. That said, many have tried to circumvent the normal steps. Some have paid for an elevator to bypass straight to the top. Others have tried to climb quietly up the walls like a ninja.
Interestingly, the 2010-11 season provided both outliers. The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat both lost in the first round the prior season. The Heat then created the Heatles while the Mavericks ran it back. Miami was supposed to win, “Not one, not two, not three” with LeBron James paired with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. But it was the Dirk Nowitzki-led Mavericks that prevailed in those Finals.
Unlike those teams mentioned above, the participants in the 2025 NBA Finals have climbed every step of the Playoff Pagoda.
Starting in the 2016-17 season, both the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder lost in the first round of their respective conference playoffs four straight years. Then both organizations missed the playoffs in three straight seasons, but the teams took different paths to get to the next level.
Oklahoma City traded for Shai-Gilgeous Alexander after the 2019 season and bottomed out with 22 wins the following season. There was a two-win improvement before that jump to 40 wins in 2022.
Indiana went from 45 wins to 34 wins to bottoming out at 25 wins in 2021. Then they acquired Tyrese Haliburton at the trade deadline of the 2021-22 season and the date with destiny began.
Last season, the Thunder won 57 games during the regular season and looked poised to enter the Pantheon of NBA greatness, but tolls were being collected and the Thunder got bounced in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Pacers, with a full season of Haliburton guiding the ship, made a run to the Eastern Conference Finals, but lost to the eventual champion Boston Celtics.
Both teams have climbed every step of the Playoff Pagoda. It’s been an arduous journey but one of these teams will be hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.
Thunder vs. Pacers prediction, preview
Oklahoma City only had Chet Holmgren for 32 games during the regular season, but the offseason acquisitions of Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso helped plug that hole and power to the league’s best regular-season mark. Oh, that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander guy was pretty, pretty good, winning MVP honors for the first time with an immaculate season. He averaged 32.7 points, five rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals, one block and 2.1 three-pointers while shooting 51% from the field, 37% from downtown and 89% from the line.
Chef’s kiss.
The Thunder had the third-best offensive rating during the regular season, but it was the defense that swept the leg on a nightly basis. The 106.6 defensive rating was tops by a wide margin. OKC had the most steals (10.8), the only team in double digits. The 5.7 blocks per game were second. The Thunder allowed the fewest points of turnovers and allowed the fewest fast break points. That ties into the league-leading 11.7 turnovers per game on offense. The Thunder also allowed the fewest points in the paint. All that while playing at the fifth-fastest pace.
In the playoffs, OKC is third in offense, first in defense and second in pace. The Thunder are second in turnovers, second in points off turnovers and first in fast break points.
The Pacers played at the seventh-fastest pace during the regular season while having the ninth-ranked offense and 13th-best defense. Indiana was third in assists per game and allowed the fewest fast break points.
These teams played twice during the regular season, with the Thunder winning both contests. Holmgren did not play in either while Aaron Nesmith missed the first meeting.
The first game was on December 24, 2024 in Indiana. OKC won 120-114. SGA went for 45 points, eight assists, a steal and two blocks in that one. Both teams shot in the 47% range. Indiana grabbed six more rebounds and dished out eight more assists. The Pacers also had four more blocks. Indiana lost the turnover battle, 11-3, though, while OKC had 12 more points in the paint.
The second game was on March 29, 2025 in Oklahoma City. OKC won 132-111. SGA went for 33 points, seven rebounds, eight assists and a steal. OKC shot 51% from the field compared to 44.8% for Indiana. OKC had four more rebounds, three more steals, eight more fastbreak points and had 18 more points in the paint. The turnover battle was won by OKC, 13-10.
The Thunder have been the best team all season long. OKC is young, deep and can play a variety of styles. The advantages that the Pacers had most teams this season are somewhat neutralized because OKC doesn’t mind playing fast and has multiple ball handlers to alleviate pressure. On the flip side, the Thunder can cause problems for the Pacers offense. I love how free-flowing the Pacers offense can be at times while admiring how well Indiana has been able to adjust at both ends of the floor. At the end of the day, though, the Thunder are just too good.
For Thursday’s Game 1, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Thunder as heavy favorites:
For the series, OKC is also heavily favored:
An OKC sweep isn’t quite the favorite, but it’s very close:
