The Rangers and Cardinals enter the third game of their series with both teams picking up a win so far. St. Louis won the previous matchup in a 2-0 shutout, while Texas won the first game 11-1.
St. Louis has improved to 33-25, while Texas remains under .500 at 28-31. It’s the only time these teams play each other this season.
Texas is a heavy favorite for the third game of the series despite the records. It is -175 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, largely due to the pitching advantage. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are +145 underdogs and the game total is set at 7.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Sunday’s Rangers vs. Cardinals matchup.
Rangers vs. Cardinals prediction
Although the Cardinals have been the better team in 2025, the Rangers are favored in the third game of the series. It all comes down to pitching.
Jacob deGrom is on the mound for the Rangers, and although he isn’t the same Cy Young ace he once was, he’s been excellent this season. He has a 2.42 ERA through 11 starts and 63.1 innings. While the ERA is great, it’s what he does every year. The difference this year is that he’s healthy. He’s on pace for over 100 innings despite not throwing more than 100 innings since the 2019 season — granted the 2020 season was shortened.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are starting Erick Fedde. He’s a solid pitcher, but he’s not deGrom — even at this stage of his career. Fedde owns a 3.90 ERA through 11 starts and 62.1 innings. He’s not a major strikeout pitcher as he has just a 5.6 K/9, but he’s also allowing 3.8 BB/9.
While the Rangers have the pitching advantage on Sunday, the Cardinals are a better offensive team. St. Louis (.259) has the third best team batting average in MLB this year, while Texas (.222) has the 28th best.
Rangers vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
The Cardinals have been the better team all season, but previous results don’t factor into this game. The Rangers have deGrom on the mound, and that gives them the edge in the series finale.
Taking the Rangers moneyline would be the play, but there isn’t enough value at -175. The -1.5 spread is an option at +124 but that requires the Rangers offense to produce. They average 3.38 runs per outing, which ranks 27th in the league.
Instead, the under is the best bet for this matchup. While the Cardinals are above the league average in runs per game, deGrom is one of the league’s better pitchers. He should limit St. Louis enough for the under 7.5 line to hit.