The Mariners and Twins played a wild, high-scoring game on Friday to open the series in Seattle. Ultimately, the Twins needed extra innings to finish their comeback, and after scoring six runs in the 10th inning, they ended up winning 12-6. What do the two teams have on tap for an encore? Let’s look at their Saturday night matchup, which will take place at 7:15 p.m. ET as Bryce Miller comes off the injured list and faces Bailey Ober in the second game of this three-game set.
The Twins are very slight road favorites at -112 road favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at just 7.5.
The loss dropped the Mariners to 30-26 and they start the day in second place in the AL West, 0.5 games behind the Astros. The Twins are one game better at 31-25 and they sit six games back of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. Between these potential Wild Card contenders, let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Twins at Mariners on Saturday night.
Twins at Mariners prediction, preview
Both offenses have underperformed in the past few weeks before having big innings on Friday. The Mariners’ came in the first inning, when they had four runs against, and the Twins’ came in the ninth and 10th when they racked up nine of their 12 runs. Can either team build on that offensive bump on Saturday?
As the old baseballism attributed to Earl Weaver says, “Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.” So who will these teams give the ball to on Saturday?
The Mariners will get Miller back for his first start since May 11 as he comes back off the IL after elbow inflammation. He was struggling before the injury, posting a 2-4 record in eight starts and going 1-2 with a 7.23 ERA, 4.90 FIP and 1.77 WHIP in his last four starts before landing on IL.
Will a few weeks off be enough to get Miller right again, and even if he is back in form, will he need time to knock the rust off and ramp up to a full workload? Most of his trouble was against righties before the injuries, and right-handed hitters batted .293 against him with a .355 wOBA in his work before the injury.
On the other side, Bailey Ober has bounced back nicely after a disastrous first start of the year. He’s 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA, 3.12 FIP and a 1.19 WHIP in his 10 starts since then and has held opponents to just a 36.9% hard-hit rate. He only has an 18.6% strikeout rate and 6.99 K/9, so he may not get a ton of Ks, but he does a good job limiting damage most of the time.
Twins at Mariners pick, best bet
The Twins have been struggling on offense overall, but one piece of good news from Friday is that Byron Buxton was able to return from the seven-day concussion list. He missed two weeks after a collision with Carlos Correa on May 15. He went 2-for-6 in his return with two runs, two RBI and a stolen base. He was off to a good start to May before the injury and now has multiple total bases in nine of his last 14 games.
Overall on the year, Buxton is hitting .264 with a .352 wOBA on the season, but since May 1, he is hitting .315 with a .412 wOBA. Over those 14 games, he had a 57.9% hard-hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate.
Best Bet: Byron Buxton 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Back in the groove, I’ll take Buxton to get multiple total bases on the strong side of the splits against an uncertain Miller at plus money.
Strong Lean: Twins over 4.5 runs (+150)
The Mariners’ bullpen is thin after losing back-to-back games in extra innings, and there’s no telling if Miller will be able to work deep into the game. Maybe Buxton’s return will jumpstart the offense, and getting the Twins to get to just five runs at this number is a great value play.
