The Mercury nearly took down the Lynx on Friday despite Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas being sidelined with injuries. Phoenix led 58-53 entering the fourth quarter, but Minnesota outscored the Mercury 21-13 in the final frame.
The Lynx remain undefeated while the Mercury fall to 4-2. Phoenix plays the Sparks on Sunday, June 1 to kick off the 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup. The in-season tournament spans 17 days in June with the winner earning a $500,000 prize for the players to divvy up.
Sparks vs. Mercury is one of four games on Sunday’s slate. The game features some of the premier players in the WNBA including Kelsey Plum and Satou Sabally.
The Sparks are 1.5-point favorites at home, and the game total is set at 160.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Sunday’s Sparks vs. Mercury matchup.
Sparks vs. Mercury prediction
Despite their loss to the Lynx, the Mercury still played a solid game. They were without Thomas, who is dealing with a calf injury. Thomas is a game-time decision for Sunday’s contest against the Sparks.
Meanwhile, the Sparks are still without Cameron Brink. Plum is shouldering much of the offensive load in her first year with the squad. She’s averaging 24 points per game through seven games, but that hasn’t translated to many wins as Los Angeles is just 2-5.
Phoenix will be another difficult matchup for the Sparks, with or without Thomas. Sabally is one of the best scorers in the league, averaging 20.8 points to go with her 8.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.8 steals per game.
The Mercury allow 74.5 points per game, which is tied for the fewest in the WNBA. They have a weaker offense, however, averaging just 78.8 points per game, the fourth lowest. The Sparks, on the other hand, are a more offense-driven team, scoring 81.7 points and allowing 84.1 points per game.
The Sparks have a bright future, but the Mercury are built for right now. If Thomas plays, Phoenix should win easily.
Sparks vs. Mercury pick, best bet
Thomas’ status certainly makes a difference in how to approach this matchup. With her in the game, it’s clear that the Mercury should win. If she sits again, Phoenix should still win but in a much closer game.
Since she’s a game-time decision, let’s assume she won’t play. The Mercury are 1.5-point underdogs on the road and -105 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phoenix should win regardless, so the moneyline is a nice bet at nearly even odds. If you want a bit more comfort, the +1.5 spread is listed at -112. In the event of a Sparks’ one-point victory, you can still win the wager.