Who could have believed we’d be here?
I mean that both literally and figuratively, actually. This game wasn’t originally supposed to be at 4:30 p.m. ET, but rain in the evening Baltimore forecast has moved the tilt up to this afternoon. Still, I’m also talking about the fact that a matchup between the Orioles and the White Sox is a meeting between the two worst teams in the American League. Heck, Baltimore only enters the day with one more victory than a club that lost 121 games just a year ago. How the mighty have fallen.
Let’s break down this unexpected matinee with some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Orioles prediction, preview
If there’s a through-line to the struggles that the Orioles have had this season, it’s a combination of underwhelming pitching performances and injury — two things that are represented equally by today’s starter Zach Eflin. After racking up a resectable 7.7 fWAR across 2023 and 2024, Eflin hasn’t seemed right in 2025. He’s been limited to six outings due to an IL stint, and he comes into Friday’s action in possession of an ugly 5.40 ERA and a 6.13 FIP. While the RHP remains one of the best at limiting free passes, Elfin’s strikeout rate is a putrid 13.1% as his fastball velocity has dipped. He’s also surrendering 2.43 opponent home runs per nine in his 33.1 innings, which includes seven long balls in his last two starts alone. Woof.
If there is a sliver-lining for Eflin this afternoon, it’s that the White Sox are almost the best matchup that a reeling pitcher could possibly ask for. Across 2025 as a whole, Chicago is hitting just .221 with 46 home runs, numbers that translate into bottom five marks in ISO (.123), wOBA (.286) and wRC+ (82). It’s not all dark clouds for the White Sox, though. Miguel Vargas, a former top prospect of the Dodgers and a key piece of the Michael Kopech trade, has turned things around in a huge way in May, slashing .275/.343/.604 with a 164 wRC+ in 102 plate appearances in the month. Vargas may have proven himself to be a big part of Chicago’s continuing rebuild.
In theory, former third-round pick Sean Burke could also be part of the team’s core. However, the results for the right-hander do not look pretty so far in 2025. Across 54.0 innings, Burke has had serious issues with control, resulting in a gargantuan 12.4% walk rate. As you’d expect, that’s led to a 5.91 xERA — the fourth-highest mark of the 100 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 innings this season. Burke does have three quality starts in his last five outings, but the free passes make him extremely hard to trust. He’ll work behind opener Jared Shuster on Friday.
White Sox vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9.5 (+102)
I have my concerns if the White Sox’s lineup can carry its weight for this prop, but 66.7% of Orioles’ home games have hit the over in 2025 — the highest clip in MLB.
Strong Lean: Jackson Holliday 2+ Total Bases (+125)
Holliday is batting .302 in May overall. Against specifically RHPs, he’s slashing .322/.352/.552 with a 159 wRC+ in the month.
