For Paris Saint-Germain and Internazionale, it all comes down to this. 90 minutes on the pitch at Allianz Arena in Münich is all that remains between one of these two great champions and the greatest prize in European football. It’s a moment that football fans around the world eagerly await every year: the Champions League final.
The two squads are well-rounded but offer a clash of styles. PSG has enjoyed a devastating attack, posting the competition’s second-most goals, most shots, and most attacks. Inter has had arguably the best defense, as Yann Sommer has kept a tournament-high seven clean sheets and made the second-most saves at the second-highest percentage. The Serie A runners-up have more experience — they made the Champions League final just two years ago and count plenty of veterans among their ranks — while Paris is led by a young core, with all but one of its regular starters being younger than 30 and two regular substitutes being just 19.
The Nerazzurri brought the fireworks in the semifinals, outlasting Barcelona in a 13-goal thriller despite entering the tie as the underdog, while the French champions made quick and fairly easy work of Arsenal, with Achraf Hakimi effectively settling the deal in the 72nd minute of the second leg. PSG ousted three straight English sides on its way to the title, while Inter eliminated the former champions of the Netherlands and the current title holders in Germany and Spain.
Paris is a +115 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the tie in regular time, with Inter at +235, and there are +235 odds that the teams will require extra time. PSG is -160 to win the cup and the Nerazzurri +125. Here are my best bets from the game.
Inter Milan to Win the Cup (+125)
It has really felt like PSG’s year, as they bounced back from losing star Kylian Mbappé during the summer to not only decisively win Ligue 1 for the 11th time in 13 years, losing just twice domestically, but to reach the Champions League final for the second time in six seasons. They lasted two rounds longer than Real Madrid, the team that signed Mbappé and went on to lose Spanish supremacy to Barça. PSG has looked clinical during the knockout phases, being seriously challenged only in the Round of 16 against Liverpool and briefly in the second half against Aston Villa. It obviously wouldn’t be a surprise if the French champions completed their first-ever treble tomorrow.
Inter’s path has simply been harder, though. Feyenoord were undoubtedly one of the easier Round of 16 opponents that the Nerazzurri could’ve asked for, but the quarterfinals and semifinals were a gauntlet. Surviving a war of attrition with Bayern, even without goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and left-back Alphonso Davies, is quite the feat given the Bavarians’ 13-point margin in a fairly stacked Bundesliga. Then, Barcelona came into the semis as arguably the world’s most-feared team behind its eclectic wing duo of Lamine Yamal and Raphinha. Yamal, who might win a Ballon d’Or at 18, was the best player on the pitch, and Raphinha netted twice, but Inter still prevailed behind five goal contributions from Denzel Dumfries, his only goal contributions of the competition.
During the semifinals, Arsenal produced better chances than PSG did, amassing 4.5 expected goals’ to the French side’s 2.9 and 29 shots to their 21, but the Gunners couldn’t convert because striker Kai Havertz — who scored the winning goal in Chelsea’s 2021 Champions League triumph — was out with an injury and couldn’t stop PSG because their best defender, Gabriel, was also out for the season. That’s not to diminish Paris’ triumph, but their back line was imperfect — especially since Hakimi is more of an attacking-oriented wing-back than a pure defender — and as tremendous as Gianluigi Donnarumma is between the sticks, Sommer is his equal. In this battle of equally-matched squads, I back the more veteran side.
My official prediction is that Inter will prevail, 2-1, in extra time after Lautaro Martínez nets the winner on an assist from Hakan Çalhanoğlu.
Yann Sommer 5+ Saves (+150)
At first glance, Sommer’s semi-final performance doesn’t look that impressive, given that he gave up three goals in each leg despite recording seven clean sheets in eight matches during the League Phase. The scoreline would then be quite misleading. Inter wouldn’t have won without him, as he made seven saves in each match, denying Yamal on diving efforts to his right twice in the second leg alone and making easy work of a low Yamal shot in the dying moments that sealed the result. The Swiss legend was awarded Man of the Match honors for his performance, ahead of Dumfries — who had a pair of assists — Francesco Acerbi, who tied it up, or Davide Frattesi, who won it.
The only question isn’t whether Sommer will show up, it’s whether PSG will attempt enough shots on target for him to get to five saves. They only got nine across the two legs against Arsenal, but given the Gunners’ rock-solid defense — they allowed a league-low 117 shots on target in 38 Premier League matches, while Inter conceded 126 shots on target in the less-heralded Serie A — that’s hardly a cause for concern. The quarterfinal yielded 17 shots on target across two legs against Aston Villa, as did the Round of 16 against Liverpool. PSG loves to play attacking football, while Inter is content to sit back and attack on the counter, so I’d expect Sommer to be tested.
Ousmane Dembélé to Score or Give Assist (+115)
It’s been a remarkable season for Dembélé, who has stepped into his Mbappé’s vacated role nicely and may well win the Ballon d’Or if his team triumphs tomorrow. He was named Ligue 1’s Player of the Season after tying for that competition’s Golden Boot award, and he ranks in the 99th percentile among forwards in Europe’s top five leagues in virtually every statistical category. His hot form from Ligue 1 has translated to the Champions League, too; he leads the team with 12 goal contributions in 12 starts, and he’s had at least one goal contribution in each of his last five Champions League matches. In the first leg against Arsenal, he netted the only goal, and in the second leg, he was substituted on for Bradley Barcola in the 70th minute and left it on a platter for Hakimi to seal the deal less than two minutes later.
The Nerazzurri’s rock-solid defense — and especially Sommer — won’t make it easy. Each of Inter’s starting defenders from the second leg against Barcelona, barring Federico Dimarco, have won at least 60% of their tackle attempts so far in the Champions League, and all except Dimarco have recorded at least 10 blocks as well. Inter allowed the third-fewest goals, second-fewest completed passes, and third-fewest corners in Serie A this season, and Dembélé is usually PSG’s corner-kick taker. Still, given the volume of shots that I expect PSG to take and Dembélé’s penchant for rising to the occasion, I’d back him to contribute against any defense.
