Perhaps the best matchup of Friday’s five-game slate will be between the Lynx and Mercury. Minnesota is undefeated at 5-0, while Phoenix is 4-1.
Phoenix will host tonight’s matchup on a few days rest as neither team has played since Tuesday. This is the first of four regular season matchups between these teams, with the second coming on Tuesday, June 3.
The Lynx are four-point favorites on the road, and the game total is set at 158.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s my prediction and pick for tonight’s Lynx vs. Mercury matchup.
Lynx vs. Mercury prediction
Although this is a rematch of the 2024 first-round series, the Mercury are a vastly different team this year. Diana Taurasi retired and Brittney Griner signed with the Atlanta Dream. Two long-time Phoenix players are gone in one summer. Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas have joined the team, however, making this one of the best frontcourts in the league.
The trade to acquire the two forwards has paid off immediately as Phoenix is 4-1 to start 2025 despite Kahleah Copper’s injury. The Mercury will pose a problem to the Lynx tonight and this could be a potential playoff matchup in the future.
The Lynx are headlined by Napheesa Collier, who is averaging 26.8 points per game on .527/.438/.939 shooting splits. She’s improved yet again after being the Defensive Player of the Year and MVP runner-up in 2024. She makes the Lynx a threat on her own, but the supporting cast has been excellent, too.
Phoenix is 4-0 at home, but not having Copper is going to show in tonight’s game against Minnesota. Collier is on fire to start the season, and not even a tremendous frontcourt can slow her down.
Lynx vs. Mercury pick, best bet
The Mercury have done a great job of restructuring their roster after Taurasi’s retirement and Griner’s free agency departure. Losing two centerpieces in one summer typically requires a rebuild, but the Mercury made adjustments on the fly and look ready to compete for a title.
Copper’s return and subsequent health for the postseason will be the determining factor for how far this team can go. Until then, they’re a tier below the Lynx and Liberty.
Minnesota is rightfully favored in this matchup and should extend its unbeaten streak to six games. A four-point spread is easy enough for the Lynx to cover against a Phoenix squad without Copper.