This will be the second game of a three-game set in Cleveland. The series opener is currently in progress at the time of this writing. These teams met way back in early April in Los Angeles, with the Angels taking two games after dropping the opener.
Los Angeles is 25-30 on the season and 15-15 on the road. Los Angeles has a better record away from home. Cleveland is 30-25 and 15-10 at home. Los Angeles is three games on top of the last-place Athletics in the American League West while Cleveland is second in the American League Central.
The Angels just finished a six-game homestand, winning only one game against the Marlins. The Yankees swept three games. The Guardians are finishing up a six-game homestand with both Los Angeles teams. After this, they head to New York for a three-game set with the Yankees.
Kyle Hendricks is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles while Slade Cecconi should get the nod for Cleveland.
Angels at Guardians prediction, preview
Kyle Hendricks is a soft-tossing righty that is 35 years old. He’s never averaged 90 mph on the fastball. This season, he’s averaging 86.7 mph. The ERA is 5.23, which is somewhat supported by the 5.1 FIP. The strikeout rate is a paltry 14.8% and the swinging strike rate is a microscopic 6.8%. At least the hard hit rate is only 33.9% and the average exit velocity is 85.8 mph. In 53.1 innings, Hendricks has walked 16 batters and given up nine home runs.
Hendricks has reverse splits, as righties have been more productive off him. Seven of the nine home runs have been smashed by righties. The wOBA is .356 for righties compared to .309 for lefties. Hendricks has also been worse on the road, sporting a 6.37 ERA in 29.2 innings while six of the nine home runs have come on the road.
Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians have struck out at the 17th-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is only 21st-best.
Slade Cecconi pitched 104 MLB innings over two seasons with Arizona. The control was excellent but the strikeout rate was in the 18% range. Since arriving in Cleveland, Cecconi has pitched 11 innings, a small sample size. The control has remained but the strikeout rate has exploded to 31.1%. The swinging strike rate has gone from the 8% range to 17.3% this season. Once again, the sample size is small. Cecconi has been a little fortunate with an 87% strand rate, but the BABIP is .296 while the 3.44 FIP supports the 3.27 ERA.
The Angels have struck out at the highest rate against right-handed pitching while being fifth in ISO. The wOBA is 24th-best.
As for bullpens, Los Angeles has the highest FIP while Cleveland has the ninth-lowest.
Angels at Guardians pick, best bet
Cecconi’s first two starts were against Detroit and Cincinnati, ranked fourth and fifth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles is first, so there’s a good chance we get the missing-bats version of Cecconi. Those two starts were on the road, so we don’t know how he will pitch at home. There could be some extra juice. That said, he’s always exhibited excellent control so I’m not too worried. I think Cecconi and the Guardians bullpen keep the Angels offense at bay. On the other side, Hendricks has allowed at least three earned runs in seven starts, with four in the most recent contests. I think the Guardians bats pick on both Hendricks and the porous Angels bullpen.
