The Friday MLB schedule looks chock full of games, but amidst plenty of action, the Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays matchup presents a fun avenue to bet on the evening slate. The ‘Stros come in at 6-4 across their last 10 games while weathering injuries, but the visiting Rays are even hotter at 8-2 in their last 10 contests.
With these teams both playing well, here’s an Astros vs. Rays prediction and pick for tonight’s game ahead of the 8:10 p.m. EST first pitch.
Astros vs. Rays prediction, preview
Houston Astros
The home-team Astros have somehow survived a decimated stable of pitchers and an injury to superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez, who hasn’t played since early May. Despite these issues, they sit 30-26 on the campaign and remain just half a game back of the AL West lead. The next-man up mentality clearly is paying dividends at the moment, but what do the numbers look like?
The Astros fall sixth in team batting average (.255) and 13th in OPS (.717) this season, though they’re actually first in both categories over the past week at a .310 AVG and .854 OPS with a league-leading eight home runs in that span. 2022 World Series MVP Jeremy Pena leads the lineup with 64 hits and a .300 AVG, while Isaac Paredes has played great ball in his first season with a team-high .829 OPS and 11 home runs. Despite Alvarez’s absence and a relative slump from Jose Altuve, this team keeps holding on.
Tampa Bay Rays
The visiting Rays are 29-27 on the year with an 11-8 record on the road. As always, they continue winning despite a relative lack of top-end star power and are one of the MLB’s hottest teams at the moment.
Jonathan Aranda does look like a superstar, pacing the team with 54 hits, the second-most RBIs (31), a .321 AVG and .922 OPS. The tough part is that only two other Rays with a sample size of 100+ at-bats boast an OPS over .700 — Brandon Lowe and Junior Caminero, each of whom have at least 49 hits and are tied for the team lead with 11 home runs apiece. The X-Factor? If Yandy Diaz can break out of his early-season slump (currently batting .237 with a .281 OBP), this offense might be able to keep rolling over the coming weeks.
Astros vs. Rays pick, best bet
Houston’s lefty ace Framber Valdez gets the starting nod with a 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, plus 64 strikeouts in 69.0 innings of work. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts, allowing six or fewer hits in each, as well as just one contest with more than one earned run.
Tampa Bay brings out Ryan Pepiot, a right-hander pitching pretty well to this point. His 3.55 ERA is nothing to scoff at, nor is his 1.23 WHIP. The metrics look decent enough, and while you’d like to see more than 52 strikeouts in 63.1 innings, his career-worst 8.38 H/9 looks like the bigger issue to watch. Pepiot’s not bad by any means, though.
The Astros enter this game as -155 favorites on the Moneyline at home, while the Rays enter as +130 underdogs to win outright. The run total sits at a pretty low 7.5.
With Houston hitting so well at the moment and Pepiot’s high H/9, I like the pitcher’s prop bet of 7+ hits allowed. It feels like a bit of a perfect storm as the Astros continue this hot streak, so at +180 odds, I love the value available here.
Best bet: Ryan Pepiot 7+ hits allowed (+180)
Click the odds to tail!
