It’s Friday and the Cubs are in Chicago. You know that means afternoon baseball at Wrigley. It’s a pretty good pitching matchup, too, even if it’s not quite a battle of household names.
Andrew Abbott will put his sterling 1.77 ERA on the line against Colin Rea in this meeting between NL Central mainstays, as Cincinnati looks to gain ground in the division and catch the red-hot Cubs. Chicago’s won four in a row coming into today’s action, while the Reds are attempting to get back to .500.
Let’s break down this matinee matchup with some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction, preview
As mentioned above, it’s been a very good start to the season for Abbott, with the soon-to-be 26-year-old having only surrendered eight earned runs across his 40.2 innings of work for the Reds. Obviously, Abbott’s ERA estimators are a little more lukewarm on the lefty, though there’s nothing wrong with a 3.47 FIP or a 3.58 xERA. There’s also some reason to believe that Abbott might continue to outperform some of the advanced statistics.
The LHP is an extreme fly ball pitcher, as Abbott owns the lowest GB/FB ratio in baseball among players who have thrown at least 40 innings so far in 2025 (0.48). That prevalence of fly balls is going to allow Abbott the ability to maintain a lower-than-normal BABIP, like he’s currently doing with his .265 mark. However, the trade-off of this archetype is home runs. In 2024, Abbott conceded a whopping 1.63 opponent long balls per nine with a 12.3% HR/FB ratio. This season, despite a higher opponent barrel rate (9.8%), Abbott’s HR/FB ratio is just 7.4%. Regression might not be coming this afternoon, as the wind won’t be blowing out of Wrigley, but I assure you, it is coming eventually. Especially with Abbott pitching half his games at Great American Ball Park.
Speaking of regression, let’s talk Rea. The 34-year-old cruised into his last outing with a 2.38 ERA, but was promptly destroyed by the same Cincinnati lineup that he’ll face today, giving up six earned runs in only five innings of work. That included surrendering both a two-run home run and a two-run single to Elly De La Cruz. Rea has been a perfectly serviceable starter for Chicago in 2025 and he’s pitched a long time in the NL Central, but there’s simply nothing particularly intimidating about the veteran RHP. Rea’s also trying to finish up a nightmarish month of May where he’s posted a 5.07 FIP. The Reds could certainly hit Rea around for the second straight week.
Reds vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cubs Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
Abbott’s due to give up a couple long balls, while the Cubs rank fourth in MLB in both home runs (79) and ISO (.188).
Strong Lean: Over 8.5 (-110)
I don’t really trust either of these starters and the over has hit in 62.8% of Cubs’ games in 2025 — the highest clip in all of baseball.
