The Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners wrap up their three-game series tonight, with both teams taking a game thus far. Below, I’ll preview some of the matchups and give a couple of bets you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Gore has been phenomenal this season. Through 11 starts and 62.1 innings, he has posted a 3.47 ERA with an xERA of 3.51 and a 2.81 FIP. He has made a substantial improvement in his strikeout numbers, with a 13.4 K/9, the highest of his career by a wide margin. His previous career high was 9.9 in 2023, underscoring this notable advancement. The Mariners rank near league average against left-handed pitchers, with tonight’s expected lineup posting a combined .325 wOBA and .158 ISO against them. They do strike out at a high rate, with a 26.4% K%. Gore could encounter trouble with his four-seam fastball, which he uses nearly half the time. Opposing hitters have posted a .379 wOBA against it, along with an xwOBA of .410. His secondary pitches—his curveball and slider—have driven his dominance. The Mariners have hit four-seam fastballs well, which could be the key to their success tonight.
For the Mariners, Emerson Hancock continues to post subpar pitching stats. His 5.95 ERA, 5.60 xERA, and 5.36 FIP reflect his struggles. Batters from both sides of the plate are hitting him hard, particularly left-handed batters, who have posted a .419 wOBA and accounted for five of the eight home runs he has allowed. The Nationals have struggled offensively this season. However, Hancock has posted subpar metrics for all his pitches. His top three pitches—sinker, changeup, and four-seam fastball—have each allowed at least a .336 wOBA. Given these struggles, he is unlikely to deliver a clean start, as the betting market reflects. His projected earned runs for tonight is set at 2.5, with -145 to the over.
Nationals vs. Mariners picks, best bet
Best Bet: Emerson Hancock over 5.5 hits allowed -115
Hancock lacks strong strikeout ability, so hitters are making consistent contact. He has allowed at least six hits in five of his eight outings, including his last three. The Nationals have a low strikeout rate, ensuring frequent contact. Given Hancock’s recent performance, the Nationals are likely to record at least six hits against him tonight.
Strong Lean: Nationals moneyline +102
I don’t believe there is a scenario where Hancock should be the favored pitcher, especially against Gore. I’m grabbing the +102 for the Nationals on the moneyline.
Check out more MLB content on DraftKings Network!
