This Thursday, MLB fans will be treated to one of the finest shows in sports: the Zack Wheeler ($10,500) show. So far this season, the veteran southpaw has delivered his best season yet, sporting a 2.42 ERA and an NL-leading 0.877 WHIP, giving up zero earned runs over his last three starts (30.6 FPTS per game).
But this column is about value plays, so as tremendous as Wheeler is, I can’t select him. Instead, here are three cheaper options who I think can provide some bang for your (DFS) buck tonight.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st].
SP Jacob Lopez, Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, $7,400
Lopez has made two starts at the MLB level, and they couldn’t have been more opposite. In his first spot start on April 29 against the Texas Rangers, he was poor, pitching 2.2 innings of six-hit, four-walk, four-run ball (1.4 FPTS). He must’ve soothed his nerves before his second start, though, because he pitched like a true ace, offering seven innings of three-hit ball and giving up just one run despite the loss (26.8 FPTS). Lopez relies more on movement than on velocity, as he has just a seventh-percentile fastball velocity but above-average spin rates. As a result, he hasn’t given up many hard hits, with an average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage that would all be in the league’s top quartile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify.
He should continue generating soft hits against a Blue Jays team that has posted the league’s seventh-lowest slugging percentage despite just its 13th-lowest batting average. The net result is that Toronto simply hasn’t plated many runs, ranking sixth-to-last in runs and fifth-to-last in homers. The Blue Jays’ scoring ineptitude is important for DFS; every run allowed is worth -2 FPTS, while every hit and walk are worth just -0.6, so soft hits are fairly unimportant. Plus, Toronto has faced the seventh-fewest pitches per average plate appearance, so Lopez might be able to go deep into the game.
1B Donovan Solano, Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals, $2,200
Normally, I wouldn’t go for a guy hitting well below the Mendoza Line, but that’s only because he got off to a truly horrific start to the season. In his last 10 games, he’s been fine, slashing .278/.381/.333 across his 18 plate appearances and averaging 2.7 FPTS per game. That’s not great, of course, but for just a $2,200 salary, it’s not nothing, and he’s had five or more in each of his last three games. Plus, while his playing time is sporadic, he should get the start tonight over Rowdy Tellez ($3,000) with southpaw MacKenzie Gore ($9,300) on the mound for Washington. This season, Tellez has posted just a .258 OPS against lefties, while Solano has been slightly better.
Solano doesn’t have many strengths as a batter, but he does at least tend to find the launch-angle sweet spot most of the time. That’s one of the areas in which Gore struggles, posting just a 24th-percentile ground ball percentage. He is also prone to the occasional hard hit, ranking in the bottom decile in both hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity, although Solano isn’t necessarily the most poised to do that. The 37-year-old’s opportunities should really come after Gore leaves the game and he gets to face the Nationals’ bullpen, which has allowed a 6.11 ERA this season and has somehow hit seven more batters than any other team.
OF Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, $3,900
Simpson has been the ultimate contact hitter early in his rookie season with Tampa Bay. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average, the 95th in strikeout rate, and the 96th in whiff percentage, and he would be up there for squared-up percentage too if he’d taken enough swings to qualify. But he’s one of just seven qualified players so far not to record a barrel, and he also ranks in the first percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
That’s still a decent recipe against Astros starter Ryan Gusto ($6,400), who ranks in just the 38th percentile in expected batting average, the 29th percentile in walk percentage, and the 49th percentile in whiff percentage. Plus, he has a slower-than-average fastball velocity and Houston catcher Yanier Díaz ($3,500) has a below-average pop time. That should allow Simpson plenty of chances to utilize his 98th percentile sprint speed to record a stolen base, which he has done nine times in his last 11 games. He ranks fourth in the AL in stolen bases this season.
