This will be the second game of a double-header between these teams on Thursday, scheduled to start at 6:45 p.m. ET.
Atlanta is 25-28 on the season and 9-19 on the road. Philadelphia is 35-19 and 18-8 at home. Philadelphia sits atop the National League East while Atlanta is currently third, 9.5 games behind.
Chris Sale is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta while Zack Wheeler should get the nod for Philadelphia.
Braves at Phillies prediction, preview
Sale hasn’t been as dominant as last season, but he’s still been pretty, pretty, pretty good. The walk, home run, ERA and FIP have all increased, but the walk rate is still only 2.34, home run rate is 1.02, ERA is 3.36 and FIP is 3.04. The fastball is still averaging 95.1 mph at 36 years old. The swinging strike rate is 14.5% while the chase rate is 33.2%.
Sale has been somewhat unlucky with a .359 BABIP.
Sale has struck out at least eight batters in a game five times this season, with two games at 10 K’s. He’s allowed at least three earned runs four times, with a high of five, but those all came in the first four starts of the season. That five earned run game was against the Phillies in 4.2 innings during his third start of the year. Since then, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start and four games with one earned run or fewer.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 12th-lowest rate but have the seventh-best ISO. The wOBA is 4th-best.
Wheeler has been and is one of the best pitchers in MLB. In 200 innings last season, he posted a 28.5% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 0.9 HR/9. In 70.2 innings to start this season, the strikeout rate has been a career-high 32.7% while the walk rate is 5.2%. The HR/9 is 1.02.
Wheeler is still averaging 95.8 mph on the fastball at 34 years old. The swinging strike rate is 13.7% and the FIP is 2.73. The BABIP is only .255, but he’s had a sub-.300 BABIP in each of the prior four seasons. It was .246 last year.
Wheeler has allowed more than three earned runs only twice this season. Those came in the third and fourth starts of the year. Interestingly, he also allowed five earned runs against the Braves in the third start of the season. In the three most recent starts, Wheeler has not allowed an earned run.
The Braves have struck out at the 13th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 20th in ISO. They are also 9th in wOBA. Ronald Acuna Jr. has only played in four games and racked up 18 plate appearances, so those numbers don’t tell the whole story.
As for bullpens, Atlanta has the 12th-highest FIP while Philadelphia has the 10th-lowest.
Braves at Phillies pick, best bet
Sale and Wheeler are two of the best pitchers in MLB. I’m not expecting a repeat of their earlier matchup when both allowed five earned runs. I’m expecting a low-scoring, tight game.
