If the Indiana Pacers close out the New York Knicks tonight in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Aaron Nesmith will have been a major part of the Pacers’ first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. If not for Nesmith’s late flurry of threes in Indiana’s epic Game 1 comeback victory, the series would be tied, 2-2, with all to play for tonight.
The game will tip off at 8 p.m. ET, and although Nesmith is technically questionable with an ankle injury that held him out for parts of Game 4, it’d be very surprising if he didn’t ultimately end up suiting up.
Indiana is a 4.5-point underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 221.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Nesmith.
Best Aaron Nesmith Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Nesmith O1.5 Steals + Blocks (+100)
Nesmith’s offense has cooled down somewhat after his Game 1 explosion, as he hasn’t hit more than two three-pointers since or scored more than 16 points. However, he’s had a positive net on-off rating in every game this series, including a team-high figure in Game 4. Whether or not his shot has been falling, Nesmith is a major asset on defense. In 132.8 partial possessions this series, he’s held Jalen Brunson to 33 points, nine assists, and 10 turnovers on 12-for-26 shooting from the field and one-for-seven shooting from deep. He’s also recorded at least two combined steals and blocks in all four games this series, and the Pacers have had more combined steals and blocks than the Knicks in each of the past two games.
There’s no reason why that trend wouldn’t continue in Game 5. He should continue to get primary reps on Brunson, who leads all conference finals participants in turnovers and time of possession per game and will likely be leaned on even more heavily tonight with New York on the brink. Plus, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart have all been blocked more than once per game these playoffs, among just 28 players with that dubious distinction. Whenever Indiana closes this one out, Tyrese Haliburton will get Conference Finals MVP, but Nesmith’s two-way play will prove to be just as much the difference.
