The PGA TOUR heads to Dublin, Ohio this week for the Memorial Tournament. Muirfield Village Golf Club will be the host course, and measures as a 7,569-yard par 72 with Bentgrass greens.
This is a Signature Event, so there will be just 72 golfers in the field this week. However, there will still be a cut, as the top-50 and ties will all make the weekend. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is yet again the overwhelming betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at +280, especially with no Rory McIlroy in the field. Collin Morikawa (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1600), Justin Thomas (+1800) and Patrick Cantlay (+2200) round out the top of the odds board.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Justin Thomas to win (+1800)
Thomas had a miserable first round at the PGA Championship, which led to his first missed cut of the season. He bounced back the next day, however, gaining strokes both on approach and off-the-tee, and should be ready to rock this week at Muirfield after a week off. Thomas has a mixed bag of history at Jack’s Place, having missed the cut here four times over his past nine starts, but also rattling off finishes of T18, T8 and T4 during that stretch.
If he wants to win this week, he will have to keep his ball in the fairway, as the rough at Muirfield is always penal. With that said, Thomas is having his best season in years and ranks second in Total Strokes Gained — behind only Scottie Scheffler — over his past 48 rounds. He’s back to being a top-three iron player in the world, and is putting the lights out right now.
JT already has six top-nine finishes this season, including a his win at Harbour Town and a pair of runner-ups at the Valspar and Truist. I am willing to forgive him for one poor week and hop right back on the train at a course he’s played a ton in his career.
He should not be priced behind Collin Morikawa or Xander Schauffele right now, so there’s even some value in this 18/1 number.
Jordan Spieth to win (+3500)
Spieth hit the ball well at Colonial last week, gaining half a stroke on approach and 4.04 off-the-tee. For some reason he seems to have forgotten how to putt, as he lost 2.1 strokes on the greens. However, we know that Bentgrass is his preferred putting surface, so it’s only a matter of time before he reverts back to the Spieth of old in that department.
Very quietly, the three-time major winner is having a really solid season, carding six top-18 finishes in 13 starts, including top-10s at both the Cognizant and WM Phoenix Open. Spieth also has incredibly strong history at Muirfield, having posted top-18 finishes in seven of his 10 starts here since 2015, including three top-sevens in that stretch.
As a matter of fact, among golfers in this field with more than one career start at this event, only Scheffler, Morikawa, Cantlay and Schauffele have averaged more Total Strokes Gained per round than Spieth has at Jack’s Place.
If Spieth is ever going to win again, it’s definitely going to be at a track he’s had success at in the past, and theres only a handful of courses on the PGA TOUR where he’s been more consistent at than Muirfield.