The Philadelphia Phillies enter this matchup on fire, owning a 35-19 record and sitting atop the NL East standings. With the Braves stumbling at 25-28, this is a crucial game for both teams. The Braves are facing off against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, Zack Wheeler, who has been dominant all season. Bad news bears Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Phillies and the Braves.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Phillies vs. Braves prediction, preview
Wheeler’s numbers speak volumes—his 2.14 xERA and 2.51 xFIP are elite, while his 9.7 K/9 puts him in rarefied air. The Braves, meanwhile, are sending out AJ Smith-Shawver, a promising young arm with a solid 3.67 ERA, but his 5.57 xERA raises red flags. With Wheeler’s Cy Young-caliber stuff and the Braves’ so-so struggles against righties (just a .326 wOBA vs RHP), it’s tough to see them solving him tonight.
Wheeler’s ability to lock in against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .201 OBP, coupled with his 99th percentile xERA, makes him a nightmare for Atlanta’s lineup, which has failed to break out recently. Ronald Acuña Jr. has been excellent since returning from injury, but his .315 wOBA against Wheeler in 47 career at-bats shows that even the MVP has had some trouble with this ace. Meanwhile, Matt Olson (nine HR, .462 SLG) is the Braves’ most dangerous bat, but he’s also striking out 24.5% of the time, which plays right into Wheeler’s strengths. Olson’s 14.3% barrel rate against right-handed pitchers, while respectable, isn’t enough to challenge a pitcher with Wheeler’s command and strikeout ability.
On the other hand, Smith-Shawver is fortunate to be sitting on a 3.67 ERA despite a lackluster 5.57 xERA. He’s struggled with walks (10.6% BB%) and hard contact—his 79% hard-hit rate on first-pitch fastballs is the highest in the league. Facing a potent Phillies offense, led by Kyle Schwarber (.567 SLG, 18 HR) and Trea Turner (.305 AVG, .437 SLG), doesn’t bode well for the young righty. The Phillies hit for power, rank fifth in wRC+ over the past 14 days, and they’ll capitalize on Smith-Shawver’s command issues.
The Braves’ offense has been cold recently, ranking just 18th in runs per game and sitting at .248 in batting average. Marcell Ozuna, with his .425 OBP and .471 SLG, provides some hope for the Braves, but his .297 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, coupled with Wheeler’s dominance over lefties, will likely limit his impact. Ozzie Albies is hitting .240 with eight doubles, five home runs and 18 walks, but his .309 wOBA against right-handers this season suggests he’ll be neutralized by Wheeler’s elite stuff. Austin Riley, slashing .272 with nine HRs, could be a factor if he can catch Wheeler’s breaking stuff, but his 30.5% strikeout rate against righties this season doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Braves vs. Phillies pick, best bet
With Wheeler on the hill, their best chance lies in keeping it close early, but history shows they struggle to perform at Citizens Bank Park, going 1-4 in their last five there. The Phillies, however, are on a 10-1 hot streak and have dominated at home, winning 18 of 26 games. They’ve shown consistency across both sides of the ball and have the edge in the bullpen as well, despite some recent struggles.
Add in a forecast calling for rain, potentially disrupting the game and leading to early bullpen action, and it’s clear: the Braves’ lack of depth and Wheeler’s dominance set up the Phillies for a crucial win. The Phillies are 30-15 when favored this season, and they’ve covered the run line in eight of their last 10 home games against National League opponents.
Like moths to a flame, we follow the fire. Phillies Moneyline.
Best bet: Phillies (-155) vs. Braves
Regression toward that 5.57 xERA for Smith-Sawver is inevitable—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
