The Western Conference Finals continue Wednesday with the Thunder hosting the Timberwolves for Game 5 of this best of seven. DraftKings is offering a plethora of contests for this Showdown slate. Below, I have featured some of my favorite DFS picks for this contest.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (MIN @ OKC)
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Williams ($9,800, $14,700 CPT)
Williams’ success against the Timberwolves continued in the Thunder’s Game 4 win over Minnesota on Monday, with the All-Star posting 53.25 FPTS across 39 minutes. Williams has now scored at least 43 FPTS in five of his eight matchups with the Timberwolves this season. Williams is amassing 1.2 FPTS per minute with a 27.4% usage rate and 22.9% assist percentage this season, and he should see 35-40 minutes in Game 5 on Wednesday, as the Thunder look to eliminate the Timberwolves and advance to the NBA Finals.
In this situation, Williams is a compelling combination of safety and upside that has a floor around 40 FPTS and a ceiling above 50 FPTS. Williams is the third-most expensive player for this Showdown slate and dropping down to him at captain is the most optimal route for lineup construction, as that allows you roster other studs in your UTIL spots, most notably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
UTIL Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($12,400, $18,600 CPT)
Gilgeous-Alexander is an extremely safe bet for over 50 FPTS in this closeout situation for the Thunder and a must-play for this Showdown slate. The MVP had arguably the best performance of his career on Monday, posting 68.25 FPTS across 40 minutes in the pivotal road win for Oklahoma City. Gilgeous-Alexander is now averaging 55.9 FPTS per game in his eight matchups with Minnesota this season and he has topped 50 FPTS in 10 of his 15 starts this postseason. Gilgeous-Alexander is generating 1.5 FPTS per minute with a 34.1% usage rate and 30% assist percentage this season, and the Thunder being an 8.5-point home favorite for Game 5 on DraftKings Sportsbook bodes well for the guard. When competing in single-digit spreads at home this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is producing 56 FPTS per game and he has exceeded 50 FPTS in 13 of those 17 games.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,400, $5,100 CPT)
Alexander-Walker is a difficult fade at this low salary. While the Timberwolves came up short in Game 4, Alexander-Walker was one of the main reasons this was only a two-point loss for Minnesota. In a playoff-high 29.2 minutes off the bench, Alexander-Walker scored 43 FPTS while shooting 5-of-8 on three pointers. The veteran led the Timberwolves in plus/minus and Alexander Walker should continue to see 25-30 minutes in Game 5. We can’t expect another performance over 40 FPTS, but with this type of volume, Alexander-Walker has a great chance to provide at least 20 FPTS. The wing is averaging 24.7 FPTS per game in his eight matchups with the Thunder this season and Alexander-Walker has scored 20+ FPTS in four of his last eight games during these playoffs.
Cason Wallace ($4,200, $6,300 CPT)
Wallace has been a key player for the Thunder against the Timberwolves this season. In his seven matchups with Minnesota, Wallace is scoring 18.4 FPTS in 27 minutes per game. The elite defender has exceeded 20 FPTS in four of these seven contests, including a 21.75 FPTS outing in Monday’s Game 4. Role players always tend to play better at home and Wallace topping 20 FPTS in Oklahoma City tonight is a strong possibility.
Fades
Isaiah Hartenstein ($6,800, $10,200)
After having a great second-round series vs. the Nuggets, Hartenstein has been a non-factor for Thunder against the Timberwolves. Through the first four games of this series, the center is only averaging 17.2 FPTS in 20.1 minutes per game. Hartenstein ranks second-to-last in plus/minus for Oklahoma City in this best of seven and his struggles have resulted in him not starting the second-half in back-to-back games. We saw Hartenstein come off the bench on a few occasions during the regular season, and him not starting in Game 5 wouldn’t be shocking. Nevertheless, Hartenstien shouldn’t receive more than 20 minutes tonight, making him an easy fade at these prices.
The Outcome
The Thunder have been unstoppable at home this season and coming off the impressive road win in Game 4, Oklahoma City should be oozing with confidence and close out the Timberwolves tonight. The Thunder are 42-7 at home in 2024-25 and, on their home floor during these playoffs, Oklahoma City is 7-1 and they are leading the NBA in net rating by a mile. The Thunder should run away with an easy win tonight and backing Oklahoma City as an 8.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook is a no-brainer. As a home favorite this season, the Thunder are a league-best 33-14-2 ATS.
Final score prediction: Thunder 120, Timberwolves 104
