Only 13 teams have ever fallen behind 3-1 in a playoff series and come back to win, so the Minnesota Timberwolves know what kind of history they’re up against. But if there’s any sense of solace, the Oklahoma City Thunder were on the losing end of one of those famous comebacks in their most recent conference finals appearance (although unlike the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota didn’t go 73-9 and don’t have a unanimous MVP).
If Oklahoma City doesn’t win tonight, the pressure is back on the Thunder, so they’re surely hoping to close out the Timberwolves at home. Game 5 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET, and Oklahoma City is an 8.5-point favorite (-340 Moneyline). I’ve built my favorite same game parlay to help you get excited for the all-important clash.
Best Same Game Parlay for Timberwolves at Thunder Game 5
Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 Third-Quarter Spread
The third quarter was perhaps best known for being Golden State’s quarter during its dynastic era, but if anyone gives better halftime speeches than prime Steve Kerr, it’s Mark Daigneault. The Thunder had a plus-14.0 net rating during the third quarter this season, their second-best mark during any quarter and the best mark by any team since that Warriors unit. That trend has held true this series as well; Oklahoma City actually trailed at halftime in Game 1 before breaking the game wide open with a 32-18 third quarter and outscored Minnesota 35-21 in the third quarter of Game 2. While the Thunder did lose the third quarter in both Games 3 and 4, I’m going to trust the trend in the long term, especially since MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tends to play the entirety of the frame. During the regular season and in Games 1 and 2 of the series, Oklahoma City also utilized the bench less deeply in the third quarter than the Timberwolves did.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker O9.5 Points
Alexander-Walker has had the best series of his playoff career, including an excellent Game 4 in which he dropped 23 points and recorded two blocks, nearly helping Minnesota pull off an upset despite Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle combining for just 21 points. The 26-year-old Canadian’s breakout performance shouldn’t have been surprising; after the All-Star break, he averaged 10.7 points per game in 26 games, scoring double-digit points in 14 of them. He’s also recorded 10 or more points in four of the seven games this postseason in which he’s played more than 20 minutes, including each of his last three games.
His minutes should remain high because he knows Gilgeous-Alexander’s game better than even his Thunder teammates do. Alexander-Walker is Gilgeous-Alexander’s cousin, and he played on the same high school basketball team as the MVP, who is two months his senior. Several of Gilgeous-Alexander’s devastating moves were honed in pickup games against Alexander-Walker in Toronto. That experience has paid off; so far this series, Alexander-Walker has held Gilgeous-Alexander to 17 points on five-for-16 shooting with six assists and four turnovers in 62.9 partial possessions, the best any Timberwolves defender has done against him. He’s also gotten the better of his cousin on the other end, scoring 15 points on four-for-eight shooting.
Jalen Williams 35+ Points + Rebounds + Assists
Williams has moved past his dreadful series against the Denver Nuggets, in which he averaged just 17.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game on 38-24-81 shooting splits. His 24-point performance in Game 7 in that series appears to have gotten his game back on track, as he’s scored 25 or more points in two of the four games so far and had a solid all-around performance in Game 1 despite putting up a less-than-gaudy scoring total, pairing his 19 points with eight boards, five assists, and five steals (falling only narrowly short of the 35+ P/R/A threshold). He then reached that mark in both Games 2 and 4 and didn’t play enough minutes to get close in the Game 3 blowout defeat.
The gravity that Gilgeous-Alexander draws on his drives has meant less attention on Williams. That has given him the leverage utilize his size against Anthony Edwards, his strength against the lengthy Jaden McDaniels, and his agility to test the slow-footed Julius Randle. Shot variance might depress his scoring total a little bit — he made three of his five midrange shots and six of his nine from beyond the arc — but more than half of his threes this series have been wide open. Plus, he’s actually had more front-court touches this series than even Gilgeous-Alexander and only 12 fewer potential assists. He’s tied for the team lead in rebounds and is converting his rebound chances at the highest rate of any Oklahoma City player with more than 100 total minutes this series.
