The sun is finally shining on the east coast, and chances of rainouts this week are precipitously lower than last week. We love some sunshine for Wednesday day baseball. Having said that, my focus today was on the evening slate. I have picks and predictions written for Cubs vs. Rockies, Padres vs. Marlins, Royals vs. Reds, and more to come. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cubs vs. Rockies o8.0 runs (+100)
With both teams entering in contrasting recent forms, betting the over 8.0 has a clear path to cashing. The Cubs are riding a hot streak, winning nine of their last 11 games and leading MLB in runs per game (6.0). Their offense has been explosive, including back-to-back high-scoring victories against Cincinnati, where Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki combined for three home runs and nine RBIs. The Cubs’ wRC+ of 123 over the past 10 games reflects their elite offensive rhythm. They’re second in batting average (.262) and fourth in home runs (78), and they’ve consistently delivered in high-scoring games recently.
On the flip side, the Rockies have been struggling mightily, losing nine of their last 10 games. Their offense ranks 29th in runs per game (3.2) and 30th in team batting average (.219), continuing to flounder without any major contributors at all, really. Tanner Gordon, despite his win over the Yankees, has given up six earned runs in his two starts this season, with a 1.38 WHIP. Matthew Boyd’s recent form has shown some cracks, too, as he allowed four earned runs in his last start. Given the Rockies’ offensive struggles and Boyd’s tendency to give up hits, expect plenty of runs. The over 8.0 is the play.
Padres -1.5 (+130) vs. Marlins
San Diego has dominated at home, winning 16 of 24 games, fueled by Manny Machado (.316, 6 HRs) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (12 HRs, .512 SLG). The Padres are on a 7-3 run over the last 10, averaging 4.5 runs per game and hitting .271 as a team. The Padres’ pitching staff ranks 8th in MLB with a 3.36 ERA, led by Kyle Hart (2-2, 6.00 ERA), who has been more effective at Petco Park, boasting a 1.64 ERA in two home starts.
The Marlins, with a 5.21 team ERA, are in trouble. Sandy Alcantara (2-7, 8.04 ERA) continues to struggle, allowing 4+ earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. Miami’s offense, despite flashes from Kyle Stowers (.300, 10 HRs), ranks 24th in home runs and lacks consistency. The Marlins are 2-6 in their last eight road games and are just 37.8% ATS as underdogs this season.
Padres keep rolling and cover the runline.
Royals vs. Reds u7.5 runs (-120)
Given the elite pitching matchups and the overall trends, I’m locking in Under 7.5 runs for tonight’s Reds vs. Royals game. Both pitchers bring excellent command to the mound, and the ballpark’s dimensions, particularly in Kauffman, don’t favor the power hitters Cincinnati relies on.
Hunter Greene, with his 2.54 ERA and 32.6% strikeout rate, is perfectly suited for a park that suppresses home runs. He’s only given up more than two earned runs in two games this season, and his high-velocity fastball should neutralize the Royals’ struggling offense. Kansas City ranks dead last in home runs and 27th in runs per game, and Greene’s ability to limit hard contact and miss bats only enhances his chances of a strong outing. Expect him to dominate.
On the flip side, Noah Cameron’s 0.93 ERA and elite 0.67 WHIP scream low-scoring affair. Though he’s a small-sample anomaly, Cameron has effectively limited opposing hitters, holding them to a .108 average. If he can command his stuff, he has a legitimate shot at stifling the Reds’ offense.
Add in both teams’ recent trends—Cincinnati’s games going under the total and Kansas City’s lackluster offensive output—this could just come down to Hunter Greene suffocating the home team.
