Major League Baseball has a full day of action this Wednesday with games spread throughout the afternoon and evening. A five-game wave gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET with a few games spread through the afternoon and seven games starting at 6:30 p.m. ET or later. Let’s take a look at the action under the lights and grab a few home run props to spice up the midweek betting card. Looking at the options and matchups on the board this Wednesday, my favorite three targets for home run props are Cal Raleigh, Seiya Suzuki and Wyatt Langford.
Just a quick reminder before we dive in that by their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets. They’re awesome flexes to enjoy and highlights to relish when they hit, though. They are definitely not “safe” picks but, home run props are also always a fun way to flex with some long-shot plays. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Wedensday, May 28.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Seiya Suzuki to record 1+ home runs (+390)
The Cubs and Rockies haven’t had much offense in the first two games of this series with just two home runs and 11 total runs since the wind has been whipping in and knocking balls down. The forecast for Wednesday is much better, though, and I love the matchup for Suzuki who comes at very juicy odds of almost +400 as one of my top home run bets this Wednesday night.
Suzuki has 14 homers on the season with a .381 wOBA and .296 ISO as a result of a 50.7% hard-hit rate and 16.2% barrel rate, which are both dramatic improvements and would be career-highs if he keeps them going for the season. He has five homers in his last 14 games with an 18.2% barrel rate and 52.3% hard-hit rate over that span.
On Wednesday, he gets a great matchup against righty Tanner Gordon and the Rockies. Gordon has allowed nine runs on 14 hits in his two starts this season. The righty has actually held lefties to a .179 batting average but has allowed righties like Suzuki to hit .429 with a .525 wOBA and the one home run he has served up. He had similar but less dramatic splits last season, when he gave up 10 home runs in just 34 1/3 innings across eight starts. Six of those homers came to righties as well.
Double-check the weather but as long as the wind isn’t too brutal, Suzuki should be ready to roll against Gordon and the Rockies on Wednesday night. I highlighted Suzuki as one of my top MLB DFS plays as well.
Wyatt Langford to record 1+ home runs (+360)
In Texas, the Rangers offense continues to struggle, but they did get a 2-0 win over the Blue Jays in another very low-scoring series so far this week. The Rangers will face opener Paxton Schultz ($4,000) and are likely to see plenty of lefty Eric Lauer ($6,000) in relief. Schultz has given up two homers in his 10 2/3 innings while Lauer has surrendered three long balls in his 16 1/3 innings. Four of their combined five home runs allowed have come to right-handed hitters, which is why Langford makes it into my home run props for Wednesday’s matchup.
Langford missed a few games but has reached 10 homers in his 46 contests this season with a .216 ISO and .343 wOBA. His contact metrics are a little better than his results show with a 48.8% hard-hit rate and 14.2% barrel rate giving him a .513 xSLG compared to his .462 actual SLG. Over half his home runs have come at home and most of them have come against right-handed pitching as well.
He went yard in the first game of this series and has four blasts in his last 15 games. With Corey Seager (hamstring) coming off the IL, the Rangers lineup should be closer to fully loaded for their matchup this Wednesday and the added depth should help Langford to thrive in the top part of the lineup.
Cal Raleigh to record 1+ home runs (+230)
In the last game of the day, the Mariners are hosting the Nationals in what should be a fun West Coast matchup. The Mariners get to face Trevor Williams of the Nats, who comes into this start with a 6.39 ERA, 4.28 FIP and seven home runs allowed in 49 1/3 innings. Almost all the damage against Williams has been done by left-handed hitters, who have six of the seven homers against him this season and a .435 wOBA.
The switch-hitting Raleigh will be on the strong side of those splits as he continues to try and keep up with Shohei Ohtani for the MLB home run lead. Raleigh’s 19 homers on the year lead the American League and are just one off Ohtani’s blistering pace. Raleigh hit a pair of dingers on Tuesday against the Nats and continues to be one of the top power threats in baseball.
Raleigh’s two shots on Tuesday give him six homers in his last 11 games and during that stretch he has been mashing everything with a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 29.2% barrel rate.
Against Williams in the late game, Raleigh should be able to continue his power surge and is one of the top home run props I’m targeting this Wednesday.
