The inevitable Oklahoma City Thunder looked not so inevitable in being pushed to seven games by the Denver Nuggets in the conference semifinals, and it appeared plausible, even if unlikely, that the Minnesota Timberwolves could pull off an upset and deny them a Finals appearance. But the Thunder have looked much better this series and have a chance to close the Timberwolves out tonight.
For the big game, DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest with a $500,000 prize pool. In two-team contests, getting value out of cheaper options is paramount. Here are two of my favorite bargain plays for tonight’s possible Western Conference Finals finale:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (MIN @ OKC).
SG/SF Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, $3,400
If Minnesota had gone on to win Game 4, it would’ve been known as the Alexander-Walker game. Alexander-Walker has been the ninth man in the rotation for the entire season, but sometimes, it’s the ninth men who win games. That was very nearly true in Game 4, when he dropped a playoff career-high 23 points, four boards, six assists, and two steals (43 FPTS), and despite that, his DFS Showdown salary dropped from $3,600 to $3,400. After being mostly a non-factor in the first two rounds of the playoffs, he has received 25 or more minutes in three of the four games so far this series and made the most of his opportunities. Chris Finch would be foolish to go away from what’s working.
Alexander-Walker has also been arguably the team’s best defender against Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($12,400), holding the MVP to five-for-16 shooting with six assists and four turnovers in the 62.9 partial possessions that he has guarded him. In Alexander-Walker, the Timberwolves have an edge that no other team does; Alexander-Walker and Gilgeous-Alexander are cousins — Gilgeous-Alexander is two months older — and grew up together in Toronto, playing for the same high school basketball team. Much of Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive repertoire was crafted in pickup games against Alexander-Walker, so Alexander-Walker’s deep knowledge of the Thunder star’s game should keep his minutes high.
PF/C Kenrich Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, $1,200
Williams was mostly a garbage-time piece, used very sparingly in the first two rounds of the playoffs and only in the lopsided Game 1 and 3 affairs of this series. But he showed enough in those garbage-time minutes to earn 12 minutes of competitive basketball in Game 4, scoring five points, snagging two rebounds, and, in true fashion to his Kenny Hustle nickname, nabbing two steals as well (11.5 FPTS). Williams appears to have usurped Isaiah Joe ($2,400) to become the eighth man in the rotation after Joe’s pitiful two-point, one-for-seven (9.75-FPT) performance in Game 3, and he has proven himself more reliable than Jaylin Williams ($2,000) to play as a backup big when either Chet Holmgren ($8,600) or Jalen Williams ($9,800) need a rest.
Kenrich Williams isn’t going to be asked to do too much, and his ceiling is probably in the range of 15 FPTS, but that’s completely fine when his DFS salary is lower than Jaylin Williams’, and Jaylin Williams is unlikely to receive any playing time. Getting 15 FPTS from Kenny Hustle for just 2.4% of your budget means being able to fit both Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards ($11,400) into your lineup and still putting up decent production. More than half of his shots this series have come with the nearest defender more than four feet away, and he’s made five of his eight such shots, fairly close to his regular-season mark. In fact, he’s shot open threes less accurately so far this series than he did during the regular season, so shooting variance might swing in his favor.
