The Athletics close out their quick two-game series in Houston on Wednesday afternoon as they send Luis Severino to the hill against Lance McCullers Jr. and the Astros. On Tuesday, the Astros took the first game of the set in an 11-1 rout. The win moved Houston to 29-25 on the season and dropped the A’s to 23-32. Both teams are chasing the Mariners, who lead the AL West with a 30-23 mark so far this season.
The A’s are just 1-12 in their last 13 games, which is one of the main reasons why the Astros are -148 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Athletics vs. Astros ahead of the 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch
Athletics vs. Astros prediction, preview
The Athletics’ offense went quiet on Tuesday against Hunter Brown, who continues to be excellent for the Astros. The main issue during the A’s slide has been their pitching. They have an ugly 7.61 ERA and 6.20 team FIP over the last 13 games while giving up 2.5 HR/9 and 1 1.62 WHIP. They’ve actually hit .231 with a .301 wOBA over those 13 games, with an average of 3.2 runs per game. Not great for sure, but most of the issue has been on the mound.
They’ll look to Luis Severino to turn that around on Wednesday, but the free agent acquisition has gone only 1-4 in his 11 starts with a 4.11 ERA and 3.39 FIP. He’s done a very good job giving the team innings but has not been able to top opponents’ scoring. He has been much better on the road than at home, but has given up 14 runs in 22 innings over his last four starts.
Against the Astros in his career, Severino is 2-4 with an ERA of 4.96. He has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts against them over the last two seasons.
On the other side of the matchup, Lance McCullers Jr. is building up after being sidelined for two seasons following flexor tendon surgery. McCullers has pitched 12 1/3 innings in his four starts and has allowed 11 runs on 15 hits and 10 walks. His last start was his best of the season so far, as he worked 4 1/3 innings against the Mariners and gave up just two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out a season-high eight.
A few hitters in each lineup are heating up, so keep an eye on Lawrence Butler, Christian Walker, and Jose Altuve if you’re looking for individual player props. Altuve hit a pair of home runs in Tuesday’s 11-1 win while going 4-for-4 and Butler went 3-for-3 with a homer for the A’s in the loss.
Athletics vs. Astros pick, best bet
In this contest, I think the best play is to pick both these pitchers to continue struggling and attack the over/under at just 8.5 runs. Six of the Athletics’ last seven games have gone over this run line, and the Astros’ offense looked strong on Tuesday night. Houston has gone under the run line more often than over this season, but with McCullers on the mound, they’ll have to put up some more runs. In each of his four starts, the total has been at least nine runs, with a high point of 22 runs in a home game against the Reds in early May.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 total runs (-102)
Neither starting pitcher inspires much confidence, and both offenses have been good enough lately (last night notwithstanding) to expect at least nine runs in this matchup.
Strong Lean: Lance McCullers Jr. under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
McCullers has only reached five strikeouts in one of his four starts this season, and had zero strikeouts and two strikeouts in his last two starts before finding 8 Ks against the Mariners. The Mariners are much more strikeout-prone than the A’s, though, who have been much better at strikeout suppression this season. I think they’ll get runs off McCullers and get him out early, well before he reaches five strikeouts.
