The Red Sox are in a bit of trouble as Alex Bregman will be sidelined for a significant period. The team is fourth in the AL East with a 27-30 record.
Wednesday’s game will be the final game of a three-game set against the Brewers. Boston has lost four straight and both games against Milwaukee thus far.
Here’s a Red Sox vs. Brewers prediction and pick for the final game of this series ahead of the 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch.
Red Sox vs. Brewers prediction, preview
The Red Sox and Brewers have both been a bit disappointing this season. The good thing is that it’s not even June, so there’s plenty of time for adjustments.
Boston has looked to some of its top prospects with Bregman’s injury expected to last a significant period. Kristian Campbell was already on the major league roster, and Marcelo Mayer earned the call-up after the injury news.
While it’s exciting to see some young players in the big leagues, they haven’t made a large enough impact for the Red Sox to benefit yet. They’re a long-term solution to a short-term problem. This will especially be the case for the final game of the series against the Brewers.
Freddy Peralta will be on the mound for Milwaukee amid a terrific start to the season. He owns a 2.55 ERA through 11 starts and 60 innings. His walk rate is a bit concerning, but he’s otherwise been a solid starter for a middle-of-the-pack team.
While Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran are great hitters, they’re not enough to take down the Brewers. They could tack on a run or two, but Milwaukee’s offense will fire back.
The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello, who has shown some promise in his first three MLB seasons. That said, he’s struggling to start the 2025 season as he owns a 4.08 ERA through seven starts. He’s even worse than Peralta with walks. He ranks in the 10th percentile compared to Peralta’s 39th percentile on Baseball Savant.
I’m expecting Bello to be a bit sloppy against Milwaukee and for the Brewers to take an early lead in the final game of the series.
Red Sox vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Starting pitching is essential in Major League Baseball, even in the regular season. A good starter can set the tone for the hitters. Peralta has the opportunity to do so as the Brewers look to sweep the series at American Family Field.
Given the pitching advantage, the Brewers are favored -155 on the moneyline. They’re also run line favorites of -1.5 at +140, and the over/under is set at eight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
While the Brewers’ moneyline is a great bet, there isn’t enough value at -155. Instead, the run line of -1.5 is more intriguing at +140. Bello has struggled with control this season, which could lead to a messy start in Milwaukee.
Meanwhile, I have more confidence in Peralta at home despite his issues with walks. He’s not as walk-prone as Bello and has been a consistent top-end starter for years in the Brewers rotation.