Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you call them, we love to see them and we love to bet on them.
Here are my top three home runs props on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s jam-packed slate on the diamond.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Corbin Carroll 1+ Home Run (+270)
When Mike Burrows made his 2025 MLB debut last week, I warned that the prospect’s biggest red flag was his inability to keep the ball consistently in the park. This was someone who had surrendered 1.99 opponent home runs per nine at Triple-A since 2023. Well, Burrows then proceeded to give up a pair of long balls to a Brewers lineup that had been struggling to do much all month long. I don’t think that was a coincidence. Tonight, the 25-year-old will take on a Diamondbacks squad with just a little more pop. In particular, Carroll has been an absolute monster against right-handed pitching this season, with a .347 ISO and a .607 slugging percentage within the split. The former Rookie of the Year has only hit one homer since May 14, but I’d expect that trend to change this evening.
Isaac Paredes 1+ Home Run (+450)
Let’s dispel something right away: Isaac Paredes can hit left-handed pitching. Yes, the infielder is currently batting .100 within the split in 2025, but that has more to do with the fact that the Astros seemingly never see a southpaw. For his career, Paredes owns a 132 wRC+ versus LHPs. He’ll be perfectly fine tonight in a matchup with JP Sears. If anything, the more important split is Paredes’ home stats. As expected, the 26-year-old is loving the Crawford Boxes in Houston. Paredes is waaaaay outperforming his expected home run total this season and much of that has to do with the short porch in left field. Seven of Paredes’ 11 long balls have come at Daikin Park. I believe Paredes will make that eight of 12 on Tuesday, especially with Sears having conceded a combined six opponent home runs over his last three starts.
Alejandro Osuna 1+ Home Run (+800)
Do I get bonus points if I predict someone’s first-career home run? I feel like I should. Osuna made his MLB debut this past weekend and picked up his first-career hit off Kevin Gausman in Monday’s loss to Toronto. Now, he’ll get the opportunity to face-off with the struggling Bowden Francis, who happens to lead the league in long balls surrendered (15). 80% of those have come off the bat of a left-handed hitter, as Francis has given up an eye-popping 3.64 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. That sort of goes with the territory of an eighth percentile opponent hard hit rate (49.1%) and a 15th percentile opponent barrel rate (11.9%). Also, keep an eye on the status of Corey Seager. There’s a chance he’s activated off the IL prior to first pitch on Tuesday and, as the Rangers’ best left-handed bat, he’d be a perfect foil for Francis.
