The tennis world has never been more wide open. Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have retired, and it’s very possible that Novak Djokovic — the last remaining member of that vaunted Big Three — could join them within the next year or two. With the men who won 66 out of a possible 83 Grand Slams between 2003 and 2023 either gone or on their way out, more and more players can realistically dream of hoisting trophies over their shoulders.
Two members of the new guard — Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner — have separated themselves from the rest in the early going, but it’s just that: early. I’m not ready proclaim them the heirs to Djokovic and Nadal just yet.
The looming power vacuum in the world of men’s tennis means a return to focus for one of the more intriguing storylines in the sport: the fact that no man from the United States has won a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick claimed the U.S. Open in 2003. Given all the American men who count themselves among the legends of the sport — Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi have 22 Slams between them — and the success that American women have had, the United States’ recent malaise stands out.
But this generation of American men is strong. Taylor Fritz has climbed to fourth in the world and reached the US Open final in 2024, falling in straight sets to Sinner. Three other Americans — Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, and Frances Tiafoe — count themselves among the world’s top 20, while Sebastian Korda is ranked 23rd. Of the four, Shelton is probably the most promising prospect, given that he’s twice reached a Grand Slam semifinal and won both the team and individual NCAA titles while at Florida.
Entering this month’s French Open, it looked like a realistic possibility that an American could finally break the lengthy major drought, but Fritz — who hasn’t yet won more than two matches in any tournament this clay-court season and has never made it past the fourth round of the French Open — shockingly fell in the first round of the tournament to German Daniel Altmeier. Fritz’s elimination leaves eight of the 15 American men who entered the main draw still standing.
Paul (+8000) has the best odds of any American man to win the title at DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by Shelton and Tiafoe (+15000 each). After narrowly dropping the first set of his first-round match against Elmer Møller, he quickly gained control, ultimately winning 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, and he’ll face veteran Martin Fucsovics in the second-round, and given Fucsovics’ poor form this clay court season, Paul should have an edge. But even if he advances, his quadrant is tough, as he’s slated to face Alcaraz in the quarterfinals if he makes it that far.
My favorite bet is Shelton, even though he’s set to face Alcaraz a round sooner than Paul. Although he was unceremoniously dumped out of the bracket by lower-ranked players in the early rounds of both the Madrid and Rome Masters 1000 tournaments, he did reach a clay-court final against in a 500-level tournament in Münich, falling 6-2, 6-4 to Alexander Zverev. He’s been far worse on clay than on the hardcourt so far in his career, given that the slower surface neutralizes his huge serve, but he’s a more well-rounded player than many other big hitters and plays with the bravado to pull an upset. Plus, he received a walkover when his second-round opponent Hugo Gaston withdrew with an abdominal injury, and in a tournament requiring seven wins in 14 days, any unexpected rest is critical.
Can Shelton or any American man make their way through Alcaraz and Sinner? The odds suggest that it’s quite unlikely, and Alcaraz has won both times that he’s faced off against Shelton, although both matches were fairly competitive. Paul has fared somewhat better, beating Alcaraz twice in six tries and pushing him to a second-set tiebreaker during the 2024 Paris Olympics at Roland Garros. Paul has also taken a set off of Sinner both times he has faced him on clay, and both he and Shelton have beaten Sinner once.
Both favorites have had tumultuous, though successful, seasons. Sinner has only played twice this season, winning the Australian Open and then serving a three-month suspension for a 2024 doping violation before falling to Alcaraz in the final in Rome. Alcaraz, meanwhile, mostly struggled during the hard-court season — getting dumped out in the first round in Miami — but has two Masters 1000 titles and made another final in his three tournaments back on his beloved clay. Both Alcaraz and Sinner tend to operate mostly on the baseline, which allows them to dominate on clay and particularly benefits them against big hitters like Shelton.
It’s a boring, chalky answer, but I’d be fairly surprised if anyone but Alcaraz, Sinner, or Djokovic hoists the trophy on June 8. Amidst this golden generation, it’s likely that the American drought will end soon, perhaps as soon as September’s U.S. Open. It just won’t happen next week.
