I’m bad with American holidays. Is the old saying that you’re not allowed to care about the MLB standings until Memorial Day or Labor Day? Either way, the Braves come into this series with the Phillies two games below .500 and 8.5 games back in the NL East. However, there are some reasons to be optimistic.
Simply put, Atlanta is back at full-strength. Ronald Acuna Jr. returned with style last Friday, hitting the first pitch he’d seen at the MLB level in almost a year over 450 feet. It was one of two long balls that the former MVP has already notched in just three contests. Then there’s Spencer Strider, who will be making his third start of 2025 this evening. There’s no more excuses.
Let’s break down tonight’s heavyweight divisional matchup with some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Phillies prediction, preview
It shouldn’t be totally shocking that Strider has not looked quite like the vintage version of himself yet. Remember, this is a man not just coming back from a recent hamstring strain, but someone who is also continuing to rehab from an internal brace procedure. There were always going to be a couple hiccups. Strider was roughed up in his outing last Tuesday against the Nationals, surrendering six hits and four earned runs across 4.1 innings of work. More concerning was the raw stuff. The RHP averaged a mere 95.0 mph on his fastball, which is well down from where his velocity sat back in 2022 and 2023. Strider also finished the game with only nine whiffs on 75 pitches.
Obviously, Strider will get better as he keeps building up, but Philadelphia is a scary lineup to face when you’re not quite at 100%. In the month of May, the Phillies rank fifth in MLB in wOBA (.341) and sixth in wRC+ (117). They’ve managed to do all that damage without much swing and miss, either. In that same span, Philadelphia sports in the league’s fifth-lowest strikeout rate at 19.5%. Any way you slice it, this roster is dangerous with the bats.
Ranger Suarez also missed a bunch of time to start 2025, yet the lefty has settled back in nicely since his return. After getting BABIP’d to death in his first outing against the Diamondbacks, Suarez has conceded only three earned runs over his next 20.2 innings. That includes holding the Rockies scoreless at Coors for 6.2 frames last Thursday. For the season as a whole, Suarez possesses an immaculate 2.37 xERA.
Braves vs. Phillies pick, best bet
This is certainly an area where the presence of the aforementioned Acuna will help greatly, but the largest factor in tonight’s tilt might be how much the Braves have struggled to hit LHPs so far in 2025. Coming into Tuesday’s action, Atlanta is slashing a putrid .219/.287/.363 within the split with a 79 wRC+. If Suarez can keep the Braves’ bats at bay, the Phillies’ offense should be able to do enough against a shaky Strider to get the win.
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-118)
The Braves can not hit LHPs, while Philadelphia has won nine of its last 10 games.
Strong Lean: Spencer Strider Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Strider’s current pitch count and velocity concerns make this prop far too high.
