The Arizona Diamondbacks battle the Pittsburgh Pirates in the late slate tonight to round out a loaded evening of MLB competition. The D-Backs took game one of this series in a 5-0 shutout and now sit 27-27 on the season, but their offense looks far more exciting than their overall record does. As for the Pirates, the team isn’t winning a ton of games at 19-36 but are scrappy enough to make things interesting.
Here’s a Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction and pick for the opening game of this series ahead of the 8:15 p.m. EST first pitch.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction, preview
The home-team Diamondbacks are just 4-6 over their last 10 contests as they continue to struggle stringing together multiple victories. They finally got back into the win column last night to snap a five-game losing streak, but things have been a bit rough lately to say the least.
The team still ranks seventh in batting average, fourth in OPS, and fifth in both runs scored and home runs. The offense keeps firing thanks to five players with an .830 OPS or better — Pavin Smith, Geraldo Perdomo (second in NL fWAR), Ketel Marte (top-eight in MLB OPS), plus Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez (tied for fourth-most homers league-wide). The problem is in the pitching staff, which ranks 24th in ERA, 19th in WHIP, and 17th in opponent batting average. If the arms come around, this team can compete for a title, but that “if” feels massive.
However, the snakes are still far superior to these Pirates. Most MLB fans understand the situation with Pittsburgh and their payroll, and while it would be nice to see the team truly succeed for once, they’re also 4-6 over their last 10 contests and continue along the treadmill of mediocrity for now.
The Pirates’ offense bats 27th in average, tied for last in OPS, and dead-last in runs scored with just 164 in 55 games. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds lead the team with 44 and 43 hits, though they’re batting just .229 and .208, respectively. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been a bright spot hitting .288, but his poor slugging leaves him with just a .694 OPS. It’s also partly impressive and partly depressing that 38-year-old Andrew McCutchen is still a top-end contributor for this team with the lineup’s best OBP and second-best OPS with a decent sample of at-bats. Love ya, Cutch, but it’s 2025.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates pick, best bet
The Diamondbacks enter this contest as very strong -278 Moneyline favorites, while the Pirates hold +225 odds to win outright with a game total of 8.5 combined runs.
Corbin Burnes gets the starting nod for the D-Backs tonight and presents a major problem for these Pirates. With a 2.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 51 punchouts across 52.2 innings of work, the right-handed hurler is dealing as usual, especially allowing just a .207 AVG to opposing batters.
Pittsburgh starts righty Mike Burrows tonight, a 25-year-old second-year pitcher with just two career appearances to his name. He went 5.0 innings with four hits, two walks, and four earned runs (including two homers) with just three strikeouts in his long start this season. His previous MLB outing last year lasted 3.1 innings with two hits, three walks, and one earned run on a homer.
I fully expect the Diamondbacks to get the better of Burrows tonight. The team slashes .257/.338/.807 with 61 of their 75 home runs against right-handed pitching. Burrows’ inexperience will undoubtedly cost the Pirates, so I’m all aboard Arizona -1.5, even at -130 odds.
