This will be the second game of a three-game set between the Cardinals and Orioles. Batimore won the series opener, 5-2, on Monday.
St. Louis just completed a six-game homestand and are now on a six-game road trip. Baltimore just returned from a nine-game road trip and will play six games at home.
St. Louis is 30-24 on the season and 11-16 on the road. Baltimore is 19-34 and 9-15 at home.
Andre Pallante is scheduled to pitch for St. Louis while Tomoyuki Sugano should get the nod for Baltimore.
Cardinals at Orioles prediction, preview
Despite throwing mid-90s, Pallante has never been able to miss bats. In his fourth MLB season, the strikeout rate has never been above 18% while the swining strike rate has never been double-digits.
In his first three seasons, the HR/9 never went above 0.79. He pitched 108, 68 and 121.1 innings. In those seasons, he served up nine, six and eight long balls. Through 56 innings this season, Pallante has already allowed eight home runs.
The average exit velocity is a career-high 90.2 mph and the hard hit rate is a career-high 45.1%.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have struck out at the third-highest rate but have the seventh-best ISO. The wOBA is 11th-best.
We knew that Sugano was a soft-tossing righty, but a 13.8% strikeout rate is something. That’s the second-lowest mark in all of MLB. Only Antonio Senzatela is worse at 11.2%.
The 35-year-old Japanese import knows how to pitch, though. He’s only walked 10 batters and stranded 87.5% of baserunners while posting a 3.07 ERA. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only once with seven games at two earned runs or fewer.
Now for the bad. The FIP is a whopping 4.82 and he’s served up 10 home runs, six of those at home where he’s been much worse.
The Cardinals have struck out at the second-lowest rate against right-handed pitching while being 19th in ISO. They are also 6th in wOBA.
As for bullpens, St. Louis has the 8th-lowest FIP while Baltimore is 29th.
Cardinals at Orioles pick, best bet
The bullpens stand out to me for this one. As a result, I like getting plus odds on the Cardinals to win by at least two runs. In addition, I think the Cardinals can cause some troubles for Sugano.
