No NBA championship-winning team has ever lost a playoff game by more than 40 points. That’s the sort of history that the Oklahoma City Thunder will need to confront after falling, 143-101, to the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Some kind of history will happen — either the best team in NBA history by point differential will fall short of the loftiest goal in sports, or a team that suffered an unprecedented playoff blowout will win a title.
If the Thunder want to make it the latter, it’ll be down in large part to Chet Holmgren. The second-year big and team defensive anchor was quiet in Game 3, scoring only 10 points. He’ll need to be better in tonight’s Game 4, which will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis.
Oklahoma City is a three-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 219.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Holmgren.
Best Chet Holmgren Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Chet Holmgren U8.5 Rebounds (-130)
Holmgren has had a very quiet series on the boards so far, having recorded seven or fewer rebounds in each of the first three games of the series after hitting double-digit boards in five of the seven games in the conference semifinals against the Denver Nuggets. Perhaps that’s due to change at some point, but the numbers indicate that it’s more due to his own shortcomings than to luck. He’s averaged 13.7 rebound chances per game this series, and his average board is coming just 6.2 feet away from the basket, but he’s been contested on 43.8% of his boards and converted only 39% of his total rebound chances. Between Rudy Gobert’s size and positioning, Julius Randle’s strength, Jaden McDaniels’ length and athleticism, Naz Reid’s size, and Anthony Edwards’ incredible leaping ability, the Timberwolves have enough size and strength to overpower Holmgren on the glass.
Chet Holmgren U1.5 Blocks (+105)
I’m also not convinced that Holmgren will be able to make a huge difference as a shot-blocker tonight, given that he has gone block-less in each of the last two games and recording one or fewer blocks in four of his last five games overall. Minnesota’s length means that it also isn’t a frequently-blocked team; so far these playoffs, it has been rejected just 3.6 times per game, the third-lowest among the 16 playoff participants. In large part, it’s a question of scheme; Holmgren has guarded McDaniels most frequently this series, and McDaniels has been blocked just 0.5 times per game throughout these playoffs, the second-lowest rate among the Timberwolves’ rotational forwards.
Minnesota has also attempted 36.3 shots in the paint per game so far this series, the lowest of the conference finals participants, and the majority of blocked shots occur in the paint. Also, while he is the Thunder’s most prolific rim protector, he’s far from the only one; this series, five different Oklahoma City players have guarded at least 10 shots within 10 feet of the basket: Holmgren (19), Isaiah Harteinstein (15), Jalen Williams (12), Luguentz Dort (11), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (10).
