DKNetwork Logo DKNetwork Logo
MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Monday 5/26/25

MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Monday 5/26/25

Updated:

By: Zach Thompson

Memorial Day features baseball all day long with seven afternoon games and five games under the lights, giving us 24 of the 30 teams in action on this Monday. While Coors Field and Sutter Health Park are not in play, there are still some great options to attack for some home run props. Looking at the options and matchups on the board throughout this Monday, my favorite three targets for home run props are Teoscar Hernandez, Oneil Cruz and Cody Bellinger.

By their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets, but they are also some of the most fun to hit when they go off. If you’re looking to add some spice to your holiday festivities, home run props are always a fun way to flex with some long-shot plays that are awesome to celebrate. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Monday, May 26.


Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook

Teoscar Hernandez to record 1+ home runs (+500)

The Dodgers roll into Cleveland to take on the Guardians after dropping two of three in New York to the Mets. They’ll start the series by facing righty Gavin Williams. Williams is 4-2 with a 3.94 ERA on the season but has given up seven homers in his 10 starts. Three of those seven homers have been to right-handed hitters, who are hitting a .348 against him while lefties are hitting only .165.

Due to those strong reverse splits, I’m going with Teoscar in my home run props instead of Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman, who all have shorter odds. Hernandez comes at a juicy value of +500 even though he has been hitting the ball very well since returning from the injured list.

On the season, he has 10 homers in 39 games while hitting .307 with a 43.3% hard-hit rate and 11.7% barrel rate. He spent two weeks on the injured list earlier in May, but he has gone 5-for-20 with four extra base hits including a home run since his return last Monday. He has a 76.9% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate in those six games and is hitting the ball extremely well, as he has been most of the season.

Hernandez and the Dodgers need to bounce back after Sunday’s loss, and with 10 hard-hit balls in his five starts since returning, he could definitely poke one out of Progressive Field on Monday night.


Oneil Cruz to record 1+ home runs (+290)

Cruz is a long-time favorite of anyone who likes Statcast metrics since the athletic outfielder consistently sets all kinds of impressive numbers across the board. His throws and his speed have him near the top of leaderboards in those categories, and his exit velocity is also among the best in the league.

According to Statcast, Cruz has the highest average exit velocity in the MLB just ahead of Ohani, Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso and Rafael Devers. He also ranks third in barrels per plate appearance and first in barrels per batted ball event. Only Shohei has a higher hard-hit% then Cruz, and on Sunday, Cruz set a new record for the highest exit velocity in the Statcast era:

He broke the record previous held by (checks notes) Oneil Cruz.

That tape-measer homer gives Cruz 11 homers on the year and three in his last three games, all at home against the Brewers. All but one of those home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, and six have come at home at PNC Park.

Since he’ll be at home in a favorable matchup against righty Ryne Nelson, it looks like another good spot for a Cruz missile launch on Monday night. Nelson has given up three homers in 31 1/3 innings this season, and two have been hit by lefties like Cruz.


Cody Bellinger to record 1+ home runs (+450)

In the last game of the day, the Yankees are in Anaheim to take on the Angels after finishing out their sweep of the Rockies at soggy Coors Field on Sunday. The Yankees are a great spot to stack against Jack Kochanowicz and the Halos, and Bellinger makes his way into my home run props due to his current form and Kochanowicz’s splits against lefties.

On the season, the 24-year-old Kochanowicz is 3-5 in 10 starts with a 5.03 ERA, 5.64 FIP and 47.4% hard-hit rate against. He has allowed nine home runs and a 9.9% barrel rate with left-handed hitters doing most of the damage. Lefties have hit eight of those nine homers and have a .416 wOBA against him compared to righties who have only a .284 wOBA.

Bellinger only played two of the three games at Coors and did not get a home run at elevation. However, he does have three homers in his last seven games and is up to eight blasts on the season. Five of his eight homers have come in his last 17 games, and during that span, he has a 13.6% barrel rate and 33.9% hard-hit rate. He had two hard-hit balls in each of his last two games but didn’t have quite the right launch angle to get it out of Coors.

Against Kochanowicz, getting Bellinger at +450 feels like a great value option for this Monday as the Yankees take their power show to the West Coast.

Zach has been part of the DraftKings team since 2017 and covers baseball, basketball, golf, football and any other sport that offers DFS fun. He has been playing fantasy sports since box scores were only available in the newspaper the following day. Even though he grew up almost 8,000 miles away in Guam, he is a diehard Boston sports fan but will take a fantasy value play wherever he can get it, even if it’s from the Yankees.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.