This will be the second game of a three-game set between the Dodgers and Guardians. As of the time of this writing, the Dodgers are up 6-2 in the series opener on Monday.
Los Angeles is currently on a six-game road trip and lost two of three to the Mets. Cleveland has a six-game homestand after being on a 10-game roadtrip.
Los Angeles is 32-21 on the season and 13-13 on the road. Cleveland is 29-23 and 14-8 at home.
Dustin May is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles while Tanner Bibee should get the nod for Cleveland.
Dodgers at Guardians prediction, preview
May has always been an interesting pitcher. Despite throwing in the upper-90s, he has never really missed bats, subsequently resulting in a low strikeout rate. Much of that has to do with utilizing a sinker, which has allowed him to keep the ball in the park.
May has also dealt with a plethora of injuries, limiting him to fewer than 60 innings in every MLB season. Those injuries have also sapped some velocity juice, as he’s down to 95.4 mph on the fastball.
Through 50.2 innings, the strikeout rate is 22.9% while the K-BB% is 14.5%. He’s allowed six home runs and walked 18 batters. The 4.09 ERA is supported by the 3.99 FIP. May has struck out eight batters in each of the last two games, though.
On the season, he’s allowed more than three earned runs in three starts, with a high of seven earned runs.
Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians have the 10th-lowest strikeout rate but the 11th-best ISO. They are 22nd in wOBA.
Bibee has never been known as a prolific strikeout pitcher, but he had a strikeout rate in the mid-20s for the first two seasons in MLB. The swinging strike rate was in the low double-digits. Through 58 innings this season, though, the strikeout rate is way down at 18.1% while the swinging strike rate is in the single digits.
He’s also had some good fortune with an 83% strand rate and the 3.57 ERA isn’t supported by the 5.1 FIP. On a positive note, the hard hit rate allowed hasn’t been egregious, as it’s sub-40%.
The Dodgers are 16th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching while being third in ISO. They are also second in wOBA.
As for bullpens, Los Angeles has the 14th-lowest FIP while Cleveland is sixth.
Dodgers at Guardians pick, best bet
Although it looks like the Dodgers will the series opener on Monday, they haven’t been a juggernaught on the road. In addition, May has had flashes of dominance but he has been susceptible at times as well. While Bibee does scare me against the powerful Dodgers lineup, he has done a good job of limiting hard contact. It’s baseball, so anything can happen on any given day. On paper, the Dodgers should win every game, but that’s why they play the games. Give me the plus odds for Cleveland to win outright at home.
