After a slew of afternoon and early-evening baseball on Memorial Day, Judge and the Yankees head west to face off against the pesky Angels tonight. We’re not so much concerned with sides, predictions, and picks for that game as we are evaluating Aaron Judge’s bloated betting lines tonight. Let’s evaluate his’s best prop bets on the market for tonight’s game between the Angels and the Yankees.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best Aaron Judge prop bet for Angels vs. Yankees tonight
Aaron Judge 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-105)
Aaron Judge, the Yankees’ powerhouse, has been on a tear, leading the team with 18 home runs and 47 RBIs. His .397 batting average positions him among the league’s elite. Judge’s recent form is electric, hitting .333 with two home runs and four RBIs over his last five games. With the Yankees facing Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 5.03 ERA and has struggled with control (11.4% walk rate), Judge is in good shape to clear this line.
Kochanowicz allows 1.51 home runs per nine innings and a 9.9% barrel rate. His lack of strikeout ability, combined with his high walk rate, provides ample opportunity for Judge to capitalize on mistakes.
The Yankees’ offense is back to bombing. They lead the league in wRC+ (131), ISO (.212), and wOBA (.356), and Kochanowicz’s struggles against high-powered offenses should continue. Judge has proven to thrive against subpar pitchers like Kochanowicz—as well as the most elite among the major-leaguers—making this an ideal matchup for his power.
Judge himself has been a statistical marvel this season, ranking first in home runs (18) and top-10 in RBIs. His advanced metrics back up his dominance—Judge leads the MLB in hard-hit rate (52.5%) and barrels per plate appearance (12.4%). With a 12.8% walk rate and a .513 slugging percentage, Judge excels against pitchers who struggle with command like Kochanowicz. The righty’s high walk rate and propensity for home runs align perfectly with Judge’s power profile and current form. With Kochanowicz allowing a .286 batting average, Judge’s elite plate discipline and raw power make this matchup too favorable to ignore.
Judge’s ability to contribute across multiple stat lines has been remarkable. His power is undeniable, but his patient approach at the plate will help him find ways to get on base, boosting his chances for total hits, runs, and RBIs. At -105 odds, Judge clearing 3+ total hits + runs + RBIs is a value bet that’s well-supported by his recent historic form and the struggles of Kochanowicz.
I’m confident Judge can easily surpass this line against Kochanowicz tonight, perhaps with one swing of the bat.
Best bet: Aaron Judge 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-105)
Judge’s 52.5% hard-hit rate/12.4% barrel rate vs. Kochanowicz’s 9.9% barrel rate; it does not bode well—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
