The Arizona Diamondbacks are desperate to break their five-game skid, and they’ve got a fine matchup with which to do it tonight. At home, they’re favored to end their misery against a floundering Pittsburgh Pirates team that’s been plagued by offensive cold streaks. The D-Backs are sitting at a mediocre 26-27, but their lineup can explode at any moment. Meanwhile, the Pirates? They’re stuck at the bottom of the NL Central, with a 19-35 record that reflects their struggles. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Diamondbacks and the Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Ryne Nelson (1-1, 4.60 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona, and despite his ERA, he’s been quietly effective. His xFIP suggests he’s due for better luck, and against a Pittsburgh offense that’s last in runs per game (3.04), Nelson has a solid chance to shine. Expect him to keep the Pirates at bay—he’s been stingy in his last few outings, allowing just two earned runs in his last 9.1 innings. Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t anything to fear, ranking near the bottom for OPS (.635) and slugging (.331). They just don’t have the firepower to exploit Nelson’s occasional lapses.
Arizona’s lineup is a different story. Corbin Carroll has been on fire, with 15 home runs and an exit velocity bump to 94 mph this season. He’s 4-for-10 with two home runs against Heaney, who has struggled in his limited career appearances against the D-Backs. That’s a sign that Arizona’s potent offense can catch fire here. While Heaney has a respectable 2.91 ERA, his strikeout numbers are down and his contact metrics suggest regression is coming. His elevated fastball has been hit hard (he’s allowed 9 HRs this season), and the Diamondbacks rank fourth in the MLB for slugging percentage (.447). They’ll punish mistakes, and Heaney’s giving them the chance.
Let’s address the Pirates’ case. While they’ve been better recently, winning four of their last six, their offense is still anemic. They sit at the bottom for RBIs (159) and have the lowest slugging percentage in baseball. Oneil Cruz is the exception, with 11 homers and a hot bat, but he’s hardly a one-man army. Against Nelson’s low-chase rate (just 17% for lefties), Cruz might have a tough time getting going. Pittsburgh’s offense has been a team-wide mess; they’ll struggle to break through in the clutch—an area where Arizona’s pitching has been solid, holding opponents to four-or-fewer runs in 154 of their last 194 games.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
The Diamondbacks’ recent slump—where they’ve gone 11-14 in their last 25—is rooted in bad luck and missed opportunities. They’re a much better team than they’ve shown over the past week. In fact, Arizona’s ninth-ranked offense in runs scored (5.04 per game) is simply too much for Pittsburgh to handle. The Pirates have won just three of their last 13 games against NL West teams, and even though they’ve kept it close recently, Arizona has too many weapons, especially at home.
So, let’s dive into the bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+05). Why? Arizona has won 10 of its last 11 home games against NL Central teams following a loss. They’ve been dominant in the first five innings against these teams, leading in nine of their last 10 night games against the Pirates. Pittsburgh may hang around for a few innings, but their offense will fall short against Arizona’s ace, Ryne Nelson, and their electric lineup.
The underdog Pirates may provide brief moments of hope, but they can’t sustain it. Their inconsistent pitching and bottom-tier offense will prove too much to overcome. Arizona’s bats will explode as they take advantage of Heaney’s vulnerabilities, securing a win by at least two runs. The run line covers the slight margin and capitalizes on the Diamondbacks’ superior offense.
Best bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105) vs. Pirates
Snakes get right at home—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
