The Thunder and Timberwolves continue the Western Conference Finals with Game 4 in Minnesota on Monday. Currently, the Thunder lead this series 2-1. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are a three-point favorite for Game 4 and this contest presents a total of 219 points.
Below, I break down Game 4 between the Thunder and Timberwolves and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves preview, prediction
After two easy home wins for the Thunder in Games one and two, the Timberwolves returned the favor in Game three in Minnesota. The Wolves defeated Oklahoma City 143-101, which is the Thunder’s largest loss of the season. The Timberwolves led for nearly the entire contest and led by as many as 45 points. Anthony Edwards was outstanding in the dominating win for Minnesota, posting 30 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. Julius Randle also finished with 24 points, and seven players scored in double figures for the Timberwolves.
However, Minnesota’s defense was the star of the show, holding the Thunder to 101 points, which is well under their 119.4 PPG average this season. Recently named MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a season-low 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting, and Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were also held to just 13 and 10 points, respectively. As a team, Oklahoma City shot a dreadful 31% on three pointers.
The Timberwolves responding in such dominating fashion was obviously a very encouraging sign for the club, and it was also a continuation of the Thunder’s road struggles during this postseason. While Oklahoma City has dominated at home during these playoffs with a 7-1 record and a 27.6 PPG average margin of victory in those wins, the Thunder are only 3-3 on the road with a 21 PPG average margin of defeat in those three losses. When we compare all the 16 playoff team’s results on the road, Oklahoma City alarmingly ranks ninth in net rating, so it’s safe to say this young Thunder team clearly has issues with competing in hostile, road environments.
If Oklahoma City wants to respond with a win in Game 4, the whole team needs to improve offensively. Most importantly, Gilgeous-Alexander needs to return to playing at an MVP level. However, the Timberwolves clearly regained their confidence in Game 3 and the team is now 3-1 when facing the Thunder in Minnesota this season. Edwards has scored 30+ points in back-to-back games against Oklahoma City. If the wing continues to thrive in Game 4, defeating the Timberwolves will be a difficult task for the Thunder.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet
The Thunder’s road woes this postseason are a real thing and are a product of Oklahoma City being the youngest team in the NBA. The Timberwolves should treat Game 4 as a must-win and while the team likely won’t win by 42 points again, Minnesota should even this series up 2-2 in Game 4.
The Timberwolves are 37-20 after a win this season – which is the third-best record in the NBA – and attacking them on the Moneyline at an appealing +130 price on DraftKings Sportsbook is a sharp call.
