The stage is set for a pivotal Sunday Night Baseball clash as the Los Angeles Dodgers head to Citi Field for the rubber match against the New York Mets. After a narrow 5-2 victory on Saturday, the Mets will look to ride the arm of Kodai Senga to seal what would be a glorious home series win. NLCS rematches do not go quietly into this good (Sunday) night. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday Night Baseball game between the Dodgers and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play the NLCS rematch. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Senga enters with a staggering 1.43 ERA, having surrendered just two earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts. His 5.2 barrel percentage and 46.6% ground-ball rate keep hitters off balance and limit solid contact. At home, Senga has been practically unhittable, posting a 0.44 ERA in 20.1 innings. His splitter, or “ghost forkball,” has baffled batters, allowing him to control the game even against elite lineups. With his ace form, he’s primed to dominate a Dodgers lineup that—while potent—has shown vulnerabilities against right-handed pitchers this season.
The Dodgers have struggled on the mound in 2025, and Knack’s 6.17 ERA and 1.54 WHIP only add to their pitching woes. In his last outing, he allowed four earned runs in five innings against Arizona, a lineup far less daunting than New York’s. His fastball and changeup combo has been hammered this season, and with the Mets’ offensive depth, especially at home, they should capitalize on Knack’s inability to limit hard contact. The Mets rank 10th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and have an 18-6 home record.
Offensively, the Mets have been led by Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Alonso, slugging .541 against righties, is due for a big game after a quiet stretch. Lindor has also been contributing, with nine home runs and 29 RBIs, providing balance at the top of the order. Juan Soto, who snapped out of a slump on Saturday with a key two-run double, adds an extra layer of protection for the Mets’ offense. He might be catching fire at the right time.
The Dodgers have their own firepower with Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, but both have faced tough stretches recently. Freeman is 0-for-7 so far in this series, and while his season splits against righties are impressive (.351 AVG), he faces a much tougher challenge in Senga tonight. Betts, also struggling in the series, will need to find a way to adjust to Senga’s elite control and movement.
Dodgers vs. Mets pick, best bet
Climbing the ladder to lay points on the run line feels risky for what’ll be such a tight contest. But, from a betting perspective, the Mets offer excellent value at -1.5 (+161). They’ve covered the run line in six of their last eight games against teams with a winning record. They’ve also been a dominant force at home, where they’re 18-6 this season, compared to the Dodgers’ less impressive 13-12 record on the road.
Senga’s presence on the mound only strengthens this play, with the Mets covering the run line in 66.7% of their games when he starts at home.
The Mets have won 24 of their last 38 games as favorites this season (63.2%), and their strong home performance continues with a 10-5 record against teams with a winning record at Citi Field this season. The Dodgers, by contrast, have covered the run line in just 40% of their last 10 road games as underdogs. Knack’s poor numbers and the Dodgers’ reliance on a patchwork bullpen make this an ideal spot for the Mets to cover. LA’s road struggles only enhance the Mets’ case as a safe bet on the run line.
Best bet: Mets -1.5 (+161) vs. Dodgers
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