The Mets and Dodgers split the first two games of their NLCS rematch this weekend, and Juan Soto had a key double in Saturday night’s win. His tiebreaking, two-RBI double with the bases loaded in a three-run fourth inning that fueled the 5-2 win. Can Soto and the Mets get the series win on Sunday Night Baseball? After a turbulent week with plnety of media speculation, let’s take a look at my top player prop bet for Juan Soto this Saturday night.
The Mets improved to 31-21 with the win on Saturday while dropping the Dodgers to 32-20. Both teams are trying to get back to the playoffs and continue to be in playoff position as we near the end of May. Overall in this game, the Mets are slight favorites at -115 on the Moneyline with a game total of 8.5 combined runs.
Here’s my top Juan Soto prop bet for Sunday Night Baseball’s series finale.
Juan Soto under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120)
Soto had two hits and two RBI to get four hits, runs and RBI on Saturday, but he had been held under this line in five straight games before that contest. He has only produced multiple hits, runs and RBI in four of his last 12 games. During those 12 games, Soto is 7-for-45 (.156) with just one extra-base hit, three runs scored and four RBI.
He actually has a tougher matchup many people may realize against Dodgers’ starter Landon Knack. Knack is just 2-1 with a 6.17 ERA and 5.18 FIP on the season, but he has been very effective against lefties like Soto. In his 58 plate appearances by left-handed hitters, Knack is allowing just a .245 batting average and .333 wOBA while picking up 16 strikeouts on that side of the splits.
Soto did have the big hit on Saturday and could go over this total with one more big hit on Sunday, but overall, I’m not buying the turnaround quite yet. Knack and the Dodgers should be able to keep him and the rest of the Mets in check enough on Sunday to keep Soto under this total.
On the season, Soto typically goes way over this total or stays under it, so even though he has 101 hits, runs and RBI for an average of 2.02 per game, he has gone under this number more often than he has gone over it.
Soto could be turning things around, but I’m not ready to buy in with his player prop quite yet this Sunday.
